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Tuesday, Dec 10, 2024

Analyzing Rachel Reeves’s Budget: Impact and Implications

Insights into Labour's First Budget in 15 Years and Its Immediate Effects
Labour's first budget since 2009, led by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, proposes substantial changes in investment spending allowing long-term economic planning.

This budget reportedly contrasts sharply with previous Conservative fiscal policies.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) initially projected that the additional spending in the initial years would slightly accelerate economic growth compared to Jeremy Hunt's budget, but with a subsequent minimal drag on conservative plans up to 2029.

The OBR forecasted no long-term economic advantage from £70bn extra annual spending, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) regarded it as an investment in Britain’s future, anticipating benefits post-next election.

Meanwhile, discussions arose over whether Labour's spending would 'crowd in' rather than 'crowd out' private investments, with the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) supporting the former.

In terms of departmental impacts, major areas like health and education, slated to receive significant funding, offer the potential for improvement, albeit facing former budget oversights in sectors such as transport and culture.

However, concerns about austerity persist as cuts affect several departments, such as Transport and Culture, intensifying pressures on civil servants.

Welfare remains unchanged except for pensioners, possibly increasing poverty levels.

Expected infrastructure projects and housing plans under Angela Rayner are intended to counterbalance recent public utility closures.

Rachel Reeves' budget announcement prompted initial market hesitations reminiscent of Liz Truss’s mini-budget scenario, only to be quickly stabilized by high-level banking interventions.

Another major element of the budget concerns the rise in national insurance contributions from employers, now set at 15%, affecting various sectors including care homes and charities.

The OBR projects that most of this cost will be transferred to workers via lower wage growth and to consumers through higher prices.

Controversy surrounds the impact of this change on farms valuated over £1m due to the modification in inheritance tax structure, though recent data from HMRC indicates limited immediate impact with about 500 farms potentially affected next year.

Overall, the budget marks a significant departure in financial strategy, facing both praise for its future-focused investments and criticism for the short-term challenges it poses.
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