Beautiful Virgin Islands

Monday, Jul 21, 2025

Are China and the United States trying to tear the European Union apart?

Are China and the United States trying to tear the European Union apart?

This week, Estonia hosted the Three Seas Summit. On paper, the initiative is aimed at improving infrastructure in 12 former Warsaw Pact states and Austria, countries that lie between the Baltic, the Black Sea and the Adriatic. But since its creation, the Three Seas Initiative has become the focus of increasing international tension.

The outcome of this year’s Three Seas Summit (TSI) in Estonia: a billion-dollar pledge of loans from Washington, a 200-million dollar investment by technology giant Google, and promises by Estonia (also home to the Nato cyber warfare center) to create the cyber-backbone of the Three Seas Initiative.

But the TSI is not just another forum where national leaders can rub shoulders.

The TSI was initiated by Poland and Croatia in 2015, and is a brainchild of US think tanks like the Atlantic Council. On the surface, it focuses on promoting investment in north-south connectivity (transport infrastructure, transport, energy supply) to counter the post cold war pattern which is east-west oriented, think of gas pipelines running from Russia to EU core countries through Germany.


Poland, traditionally squeezed between European superpowers, and often divided internally, was looking for alternatives.

It found a ready partner in the US.

“It is a geopolitical project that aims at maintaining central and eastern Europe in the Euro-Atlantic space and cut the link with Russia,” said Pierre-Emmanuel Thomann, president of the geopolitical think tank Eurocontinent and a lecturer at the University of Lyon.

US shale gas


Last but not least: the TSI would create a market for US shale gas, a direct competitor for the Russian-German Nord Stream gas pipeline project, which pumps gas provided by Russian energy giant Gazprom via the Baltic States into the EU’s main territory.


The Three Seas Initiative countries are lines with yellow. The map shows the position of the 12 TSI member states between Russia and the EU. 


The importance Washington attributes to the project was underlined by US President Donald Trump, who attended the 2017 TSI Warsaw Summit.

That triggered the attention of the EU – never too happy with the project - and then European Council member Jean-Claude Juncker attended the 2018 TSI Bucharest meeting, while the EU Regional Development Fund was earmarked to supply 155 billion euros.

A start, “but not enough,” estimates Thomann who says that bringing the infrastructure of the 12 TSI states up to western European levels would require between 500 and 600 billion dollars.

Covid-19 spoils the party


But the Covid-19 pandemic has stopped the project in its tracks. The whole summit was done by online tele-conferencing, while the upcoming US elections prevent other countries from making “bold decisions,” says Thomann, who also noted the presence of German and EU observers who “did not make commitments” in terms of money supply to the project – no more mention was made of the 155 billion euros due to come from the Regional Development Fund.

“The Covid-19 recovery fund is also linked to the EU budget,” according to Thomann. “Because of the Covid crisis there will be a lot of competition (between EU member states when it comes to access to EU money. Priorities have changed.”

Divide Europe?


He also noted a change of attitudes towards the project, notably by Germany.

“Germany was suspicious of the project, because it was initiated by the US, and it would create a new bloc that would divide Europe.”

Germany is against that because “it is the central power which tries to maintain all the countries around - with Germany as the center.”

So Germany joined TSI “to neutralise” attempts by the project that could harm German interests. This triggered the EU commitment, so the project “wouldn’t go against EU objectives”.

The problem is that if the estimated number of 500-600 billion dollarsis not reached, the individual TSI countries won’t have enough money to upgrade their infrastructure.

And that’s where China sees a chance.

Initiated by Beijing in 2012, the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CCCEEC,) today dubbed the “17 + 1” project, brings together a group of European and Asian nations under China’s management as part of its Belt and Road Inititative (BRI,) the trillion dollar infrastructural project that spans the Eurasian continent.

'Systemic rival'


And thus, the countries in central and Eastern Europe have become a frontline in the geo-strategic battle between the US and China as some of the CCCEEC countries, notably Poland and Hungary, are also part of the Three Seas Initiative.

"The countries participating in the ‘17+1’ initiative share the opinion that their interests and geopolitical priorities and their concept of European purposes are insufciently taken into account," says Thomann in his article "The Three Seas Initiative, a New Project at the Heart of European and Global Geopolitical Rivalries," published by the Institute of East-Central Europe.

"The idea of an alliance to better defend their position is also a sign of mistrust vis-à-vis the domination of the EU by Germany, but also the Franco-German tandem," he says.


Countries taking part in China's "17+1" project are indicated in blue for EU members and yellow for non-EU members. 11 of the 17 also take part in the Three Seas Initiative. 


But the EU has become increasingly suspicious of China’s moves into Europe. The “17+1” cooperation signed BRI-related preliminary agreements with Beijing, without first consulting Brussels. Beijing's other investments and acquisitions have seen some European politicians accuse the Chinese of “buying up Europe”.

In the 2019 EU-China Strategic Outlook, Brussels calls China a “systemic rival.” Most recently, French president Emmanuel Macron said that the EU needs a unified strategy instead of individual national policies.

“I agree, that we, democracies on the European continent should stick together and guard our values and not allow non-democracies to expand their imperial schemes,” Veiko Spolitis, a former Lithuanian member of parliament who now works as a fellow for the Latvia Institute of International Relations in Riga told RFI.

But Brussels first talked austerity, not soft loans for development projects. Now it is more concerned with finding out how to pay for the massive debts generated by the Covid-19 crisis.

Contradiction


“If we don’t want to let China in, then Paris, Berlin, London, however Brexit turns out, have to get together and really strategically think about the further integration of the EU,” said Spolitis.

“It’s a contradiction,” Thomann concurred. The TSI and the Chinese '17+1' are “competing geopolitical projects. Eastern European countries try to get the best of all different contradictory geopolitical objectives.” In the end, he expects that no matter who wins the US elections, a great deal of pressure will be exerted on the TSI member states to not align with China’s infrastructural plans.

In the end, Thomann estimates the Chinese may back off. “It will be easier for them to reach Central Asia and cooperate with Pakistan,” as a result of mounting pressure on Europe not to cooperate with China, and increasing skepticism in Europe regarding China as well.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Defends Attorney General Pam Bondi Amid Epstein Memo Backlash
Renault Shares Drop as CEO Luca de Meo Announces Departure Amid Reports of Move to Kering
Senior Aides for King Charles and Prince Harry Hold Secret Peace Summit
Anti‑Semitism ‘Normalised’ in Middle‑Class Britain, Says Commission Co‑Chair
King Charles Meets David Beckham at Chelsea Flower Show
If the Department is Really About Justice: Ghislaine Maxwell Should Be Freed Now
NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s ‘Antifada’ Remarks Spark National Debate on Political Language and Economic Policy
×