Kemi Badenoch is preparing a significant reshuffle of the Conservative shadow cabinet after MPs return from the summer recess, as she tries to refresh a front bench struggling to cut through with voters while the party remains in third place nationally.

The changes are expected before the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham from October 4 to 7 and would amount to Badenoch's second substantial reshuffle since becoming party leader in November 2024.

Several changes are already taking shape.

Claire Coutinho, currently shadow energy secretary, is expected to leave the front bench before taking maternity leave later this year.

Helen Grant, the shadow solicitor general, is also expected to leave the team after announcing that she intends to stand down at the next general election.

Julia Lopez is likely to be given a different brief because Prime Minister Andy Burnham abolished the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology in his July restructuring of Whitehall, leaving her current shadow portfolio without a direct government counterpart.

The reshuffle is also expected to give Badenoch an opportunity to promote MPs elected in the Conservatives' reduced 2024 parliamentary intake.

Among the names being discussed are Katie Lam, currently a junior shadow Home Office minister; Harriet Cross, the Scottish Conservative MP for Gordon and Buchan; and Aphra Brandreth, the MP for Chester South and Eddisbury.

Their elevation has not been formally announced, and the final appointments remain Badenoch's decision.

Attention has inevitably focused on two of the most senior positions: shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride and shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel.

Both remain in their posts and are not currently expected to be removed in this round, despite speculation about their futures.

Stride has faced questions inside the party over whether the Conservatives are making enough impact on the economy and cost of living, while Patel has faced criticism from some colleagues over the visibility of the party's foreign-policy message.

Parliament's current opposition register confirms that both still hold their respective portfolios.

The difficulty for Badenoch is larger than the composition of her front bench.

Recent national polling places the Conservatives at roughly 18% to 20%, behind both Labour and Reform UK. An Opinium poll conducted in mid-August put Labour on 27%, Reform on 25% and the Conservatives on 18%.

A broader polling average around the same period placed the Conservatives just below 20%.

Badenoch's own standing has improved markedly from its lows, but that recovery has not yet translated into a comparable revival for her party.

That contrast is particularly visible in public recognition of the Conservative team.

YouGov's August research found Badenoch viewed favourably by 31% of Britons and unfavourably by 47%, giving her a net rating of minus 16. But many of her senior colleagues remain little known outside Westminster: 73% of respondents said they did not know enough about Stride to express an opinion of him.

Separate YouGov research found that only 19% of Britons regarded the Conservative Party as ready to return to government, even as assessments of Badenoch herself improved.

The reshuffle therefore comes amid a deeper argument about whom the Conservatives need to win back.

One faction wants the party to concentrate on former Tory voters who moved to Nigel Farage's Reform UK, particularly on immigration, welfare, climate policy and the European Convention on Human Rights.

Others believe the more achievable route runs through moderate and traditionally Conservative voters who switched to the Liberal Democrats in southern England.

Badenoch has increasingly adopted harder positions on several issues while simultaneously rejecting any electoral pact or coalition with Reform.

She said this weekend that she wanted to win on her own terms and described a combined Conservative-Reform government as a "monstrous" prospect.

Her determination to remain organisationally separate from Reform was reinforced during a meeting in Rome on Monday with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Meloni, who has successfully built her own dominant party on the European right, urged Badenoch not to strike a deal with Farage and advised her to maintain her own political identity.

The meeting illustrates the strategic problem Badenoch is trying to solve: compete strongly for voters on the right without allowing the Conservatives to become dependent on a rival party that has taken a large share of their former electorate.

The coming reshuffle will therefore be more than a routine exchange of shadow portfolios.

Badenoch needs a team capable of making Conservative policies more recognisable, giving newer MPs a stake in the party's recovery and presenting a credible alternative to both Labour and Reform.

No final list of appointments has yet been announced.

The immediate test will come when MPs return from recess, with Badenoch expected to complete the changes in time for the new shadow team to present itself to members and voters at the Birmingham conference beginning on October 4. :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}