Beautiful Virgin Islands

Tuesday, Jun 03, 2025

COMMENTARY: Predicting outcome of today’s election is a fool’s game

COMMENTARY: Predicting outcome of today’s election is a fool’s game

The Virgin Islands possesses its own unique political ecosystem. These paradise islands are a difficult place to predict political outcomes successfully.
Now, politics is correctly termed a social science, like its sibling economics. It has its own specific math. Politics possesses its own assumptions, based upon objective observation of past social behaviour add current events.

Unlike the more physical sciences where there is high degree of exact assessment of various models, in political science, there is fog.

Politics uses history, demographics, economics, probability, assumption, presumption, statistics, and calculus, all the time using the laboratory of society and recent history to predict outcome.

Politics is also linear in that it looks back in time at past elections and voting behaviour. Politics also gazes into the present. It looks both ways before crossing the road, and arriving at a prediction. There is both symmetry and asymmetry in the projections of political watchers.

This Observer of Virgin Islands politics has learned the hard way that making the common assumptions derived from the older and larger democracies elsewhere, for the Virgin Islands, can be a huge mistake.

Then there is the prophetic. This is simple talk: palm reading and playing a game of Russian roulette. Nothing of substance has ever comes from this source. It is expecting answers from the Ouija board: ‘the witch doctor from Senegal’.

The Virgin Islands is a close-knit community with its own society, history and culture. Family and community play a greater role in the politics of the day than say the politics of the USA or UK. News gets around fast from family to village, and then community and town. The gossip mill is very powerful in deciding political outcomes.

An invisible news network of street corner talk and rumour driven by ‘friends, extended family, siblings and cousins’ is as powerful as the more conventional, visible, and established media in driving public opinion.

Predicting outcome a game of fools

Predicting political outcomes in the Virgin Islands is a game of fools, even more so for April 24, 2023.

However, any attempt this April will offer three insights for those who appreciate a more scientific approach than emotion and fairytale.

First, there is a high degree of voter anger and frustration in the land, over recent political behaviour. Second, the Commission of Inquiry and subsequent Order in Council are a hammer over the country, that makes everyone, politician, activist, and voter, more cautious. Third, ongoing investigations driven by the Commission’s recommendations put a shackle on those politicians accused of wrongdoing, running for office. There is a limit to the promises and power of Julius Caesar, and voters know this.

Then there are the common factors with Virgin Islands Elections. District candidates over the years are safer than At-Large. However, there may be indications that this may change on April 24, 2023. The number one reason is voter frustration and anger.

Six hundred and eighty-eight (688) new voters added to the electoral roll may have an impact on the election outcome. Assuming a turnout of 16000, which appears optimistic, this number represents over 5% of voters. These new voters depending on turnout could compose a greater number in percentage terms of the total number of voters.

Watch the At-Large vote

There is much talk of coalition government and there may be substance behind this. The fragmentation of the two party system – whether this will be- is worth observing on Monday and Tuesday.

How the preceding factors affect the upcoming election is anyone’s guess. From history, watch the At-Large Vote. The At-Large vote has been decisive as to which party forms the government. The At-large numbers also drive a narrative of the complete picture of the behaviour of voters, and any swing away from the incumbents to another party.

So goes the At-Large vote, so goes the election and government. Or so it would appear.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Harvard Urges US to Unfreeze Funds for Public Health Research
Businessman Mauled by Lion at Luxury Namibian Lodge
Researchers Consider New Destinations Beyond the U.S.
53-Year-Old Doctor Claims Biological Age of 23
Trump Struggles to Secure Trade Deals With China and Europe
Russia to Return 6,000 Corpses Under Ukraine Prisoner Swap Deal
Microsoft Lays Off Hundreds More Amid Restructuring
Harvey Weinstein’s Publicist Embraces Notoriety
Macron and Meloni Seek Unity Despite Tensions
Trump Administration Accused of Obstructing Deportation Cases
Newark Mayor Sues Over Arrest at Immigration Facility
Center-Left Candidate Projected to Win South Korean Presidency
Trump’s Tariffs Predicted to Stall Global Economic Growth
South Korea’s President-Elect Expected to Take Softer Line on Trump and North Korea
Trump’s China Strategy Remains a Geopolitical Puzzle
Ukraine Executes Long-Range Drone Strikes on Russian Airbases
Conservative Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election
Study Identifies Potential Radicalization Risk Among Over One Million Muslims in Germany
Good news: Annalena Baerbock Elected President of the UN General Assembly
Apple Appeals EU Law Over User Data Sharing Requirements
South Africa: "First Black Bank" Collapses after Being Looted by Owners
Poland will now withdraw from the EU migration pact after pro-Trump nationalist wins Election
"That's Disgusting, Don’t Say It Again": The Trump Joke That Made the President Boil
Trump Cancels NASA Nominee Over Democratic Donations
Paris Saint-Germain's Greatest Triumph Is Football’s Lowest Point
OnlyFans for Sale: From Lockdown Lifeline to Eight-Billion-Dollar Empire
Mayor’s Security Officer Implicated | Shocking New Details Emerge in NYC Kidnapping Case
Hegseth Warns of Potential Chinese Military Action Against Taiwan
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Jamie Dimon Warns U.S. Bond Market Faces Pressure from Rising Debt
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Taylor Swift Gains Ownership of Her First Six Albums
Bangkok Ranked World's Top City for Remote Work in 2025
Satirical Sketch Sparks Political Spouse Feud in South Korea
Indonesia Quarry Collapse Leaves Multiple Dead and Missing
South Korean Election Video Pulled Amid Misogyny Outcry
Asian Economies Shift Away from US Dollar Amid Trade Tensions
Netflix Investigates Allegations of On-Set Mistreatment in K-Drama Production
US Defence Chief Reaffirms Strong Ties with Singapore Amid Regional Tensions
Vietnam Faces Strategic Dilemma Over China's Mekong River Projects
Malaysia's First AI Preacher Sparks Debate on Islamic Principles
White House Press Secretary Criticizes Harvard Funding, Advocates for Vocational Training
France to Implement Nationwide Smoking Ban in Outdoor Spaces Frequented by Children
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
Russia's Fossil Fuel Revenues Approach €900 Billion Since Ukraine Invasion
U.S. Justice Department Reduces American Bar Association's Role in Judicial Nominations
U.S. Department of Energy Unveils 'Doudna' Supercomputer to Advance AI Research
U.S. SEC Dismisses Lawsuit Against Binance Amid Regulatory Shift
Alcohol Industry Faces Increased Scrutiny Amid Health Concerns
Italy Faces Population Decline Amid Youth Emigration
×