Syria finds itself at a critical juncture in its tumultuous history.

After more than a decade of civil war, the rebellion has managed to oust President Bashar al-Assad, yet the path forward remains uncertain.

At the forefront of this shift is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that has rapidly risen to power following Assad's fall.

However, while their military success is undeniable, the question remains: Can HTS transition from rebel leader to national ruler in a deeply divided Syria?

With rival factions, competing international interests, and the weight of governing a war-torn nation, the stakes have never been higher.

The rise of HTS has been swift, but the challenges of governing are far more complex than fighting a war.

The group, led by Ahmed al-Shara, has proven its military strength in Idlib, Syria’s last remaining opposition stronghold.

However, administering a fragmented country rife with competing interests—including Kurdish autonomy in the northeast, Turkey-backed militias, and the ever-present threat of Israeli airstrikes—poses a monumental challenge.

Can HTS build a unified Syria while addressing the demands of these factions?

HTS’s rule in Idlib has been marked by authoritarian measures, including strict internal security to suppress dissent.

These methods, while effective in maintaining control, have sparked protests from Syrians tired of authoritarian rule, even from their former liberators.

As Mohammed al-Bashir steps in as caretaker prime minister, the question is whether he can consolidate power in the short term while ensuring long-term stability.

The challenge is not merely military—it is political and social.

How can HTS navigate the fractured landscape of Syria without alienating key populations?

The Kurdish issue is one of Syria’s most pressing and unresolved conflicts.

Kurds in the northeast have carved out their own autonomous region, creating friction with both the Syrian regime and Turkish-backed militias.

As HTS moves forward, it faces the task of negotiating with the Kurds, balancing their autonomy with the need for a united government.

This is a delicate process, as any missteps could reignite tensions and splinter Syria even further.

The geopolitical complexity surrounding Syria adds another layer of difficulty.

Israel’s ongoing airstrikes on Syrian military sites complicate HTS’s efforts to establish stability, while the international community remains divided over how to engage with the new rebel-led government.

Turkey’s support for HTS contrasts with the West’s historically cautious stance, particularly due to concerns over HTS's extremist elements.

Can HTS gain enough international legitimacy to secure the support it needs to govern effectively?

Despite these challenges, there is a glimmer of hope.

HTS has demonstrated the ability to govern within the confines of Idlib, though its methods have been controversial.

Moving forward, the group has the opportunity to evolve—to prioritize governance over survival.

If HTS can strike a delicate balance between consolidating power and embracing inclusivity, it may yet chart a new course for Syria.

But if it opts for further authoritarianism, the country risks descending into deeper chaos.

Syria’s future remains uncertain.

The road to peace will require more than military victories.

It will demand diplomacy, compromise, and a vision for governance that respects the nation’s diverse factions and international pressures.

Whether HTS can transition from a rebel group to a legitimate government will be the defining question of Syria’s post-Assad era.

The coming months will determine whether Syria can emerge from its crisis or continue to fracture into further conflict.