Beautiful Virgin Islands

Tuesday, Jun 03, 2025

This is a NOT a panic, but adjustment to a mild recession

This is a NOT a panic, but adjustment to a mild recession

Financial panics occur when investors sell what they can, not what they want to. And that happens when they can’t finance their positions.
Credit remains freely available for sound borrowers, and the rise in the cost of credit has been orderly – except for energy companies below investment grade.

There is no sign of sudden liquidation from popular exchange-traded funds that buy high yield debt, despite steep price declines. Equity multiples shrank and probably will shrink further as the market prices in a mild recession during 2020. But that’s a far cry from 2008, when major banks levered US$2 trillion worth of phony AAA-rated securities 60-to-one.

The stock market’s 15% fall from its February peak is painful, but not panicky. The coronavirus probably will cause a mild contraction of US economic activity during the second and third quarters, as travel and hospitality businesses shrink, consumers avoid shopping malls, and Americans, in general, save rather than spend as a precaution.

Consumer spending was the only significant source of US growth during 2019, as investment and manufacturing shrank in response to the incipient trade war. Strong economic data for the first two months of 2020, including an exceptionally large increase in February employment, indicated that the US economy was improving after the conclusion of a “Phase One” trade deal with China – before the coronavirus problem emerged.

Collapsing oil prices are a net negative for the economy, because a large part of the energy sector will suspend operations and cancel orders for capital equipment. But they also put more money into consumers’ pockets, so the overall impact will be limited.

As the chart shows, the cost of high-yield credit has risen sharply, but it remains within a longstanding historical range – except for energy, which blew up as the oil price collapsed. Companies with less-than-investment-grade ratings can still borrow at an all-in cost of 4% to 6%, extremely low by historical standards, given the extremely low overall level of interest rates.

The spread between LIBOR and investment-grade bonds jumped from around 0.4% to 1.2% during the past few days, which means that the total cost of borrowing for investment-grade companies is below 2% (with the 10-year yield at only 0.5%). That is still a record low for corporate borrowing costs. Investment-grade bonds are trading in a liquid market, and their prices track the Treasury market.

The stock market priced in a perfect world, and now it is pricing a less-than-perfect world. In late February the trailing price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index was above 22. It now stands at around 19. The long-term average is 16.62. Given that the dividend yield of the S&P 500 of 1.8% now exceeds the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note by 1%, and is roughly equal to the yield on 10-year investment-grade corporate bonds, equities are not particularly rich. That suggest that once the smoke clears from the coronavirus problem, there will be good reason to buy equities.

There is even better reason to buy Chinese equities with strong businesses (especially in technology) that have little debt and strong domestic markets.

A great deal can go wrong from here, to be sure. If the prospect of a mild recession increases the chance that Sen. Bernie Sanders might win the presidency, there will be good reason to panic. But for the time being, the damage is foreseeable and limited, and markets are pricing it rationally.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Harvard Urges US to Unfreeze Funds for Public Health Research
Businessman Mauled by Lion at Luxury Namibian Lodge
Researchers Consider New Destinations Beyond the U.S.
53-Year-Old Doctor Claims Biological Age of 23
Trump Struggles to Secure Trade Deals With China and Europe
Russia to Return 6,000 Corpses Under Ukraine Prisoner Swap Deal
Microsoft Lays Off Hundreds More Amid Restructuring
Harvey Weinstein’s Publicist Embraces Notoriety
Macron and Meloni Seek Unity Despite Tensions
Trump Administration Accused of Obstructing Deportation Cases
Newark Mayor Sues Over Arrest at Immigration Facility
Center-Left Candidate Projected to Win South Korean Presidency
Trump’s Tariffs Predicted to Stall Global Economic Growth
South Korea’s President-Elect Expected to Take Softer Line on Trump and North Korea
Trump’s China Strategy Remains a Geopolitical Puzzle
Ukraine Executes Long-Range Drone Strikes on Russian Airbases
Conservative Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election
Study Identifies Potential Radicalization Risk Among Over One Million Muslims in Germany
Good news: Annalena Baerbock Elected President of the UN General Assembly
Apple Appeals EU Law Over User Data Sharing Requirements
South Africa: "First Black Bank" Collapses after Being Looted by Owners
Poland will now withdraw from the EU migration pact after pro-Trump nationalist wins Election
"That's Disgusting, Don’t Say It Again": The Trump Joke That Made the President Boil
Trump Cancels NASA Nominee Over Democratic Donations
Paris Saint-Germain's Greatest Triumph Is Football’s Lowest Point
OnlyFans for Sale: From Lockdown Lifeline to Eight-Billion-Dollar Empire
Mayor’s Security Officer Implicated | Shocking New Details Emerge in NYC Kidnapping Case
Hegseth Warns of Potential Chinese Military Action Against Taiwan
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Jamie Dimon Warns U.S. Bond Market Faces Pressure from Rising Debt
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Taylor Swift Gains Ownership of Her First Six Albums
Bangkok Ranked World's Top City for Remote Work in 2025
Satirical Sketch Sparks Political Spouse Feud in South Korea
Indonesia Quarry Collapse Leaves Multiple Dead and Missing
South Korean Election Video Pulled Amid Misogyny Outcry
Asian Economies Shift Away from US Dollar Amid Trade Tensions
Netflix Investigates Allegations of On-Set Mistreatment in K-Drama Production
US Defence Chief Reaffirms Strong Ties with Singapore Amid Regional Tensions
Vietnam Faces Strategic Dilemma Over China's Mekong River Projects
Malaysia's First AI Preacher Sparks Debate on Islamic Principles
White House Press Secretary Criticizes Harvard Funding, Advocates for Vocational Training
France to Implement Nationwide Smoking Ban in Outdoor Spaces Frequented by Children
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
Russia's Fossil Fuel Revenues Approach €900 Billion Since Ukraine Invasion
U.S. Justice Department Reduces American Bar Association's Role in Judicial Nominations
U.S. Department of Energy Unveils 'Doudna' Supercomputer to Advance AI Research
U.S. SEC Dismisses Lawsuit Against Binance Amid Regulatory Shift
Alcohol Industry Faces Increased Scrutiny Amid Health Concerns
Italy Faces Population Decline Amid Youth Emigration
×