Beautiful Virgin Islands

Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025

To Join NATO Or Not: Finland Gears Up For "Historic" Decision

To Join NATO Or Not: Finland Gears Up For "Historic" Decision

Finland has traditionally been militarily non-aligned, in part to avoid provoking its eastern neighbour, with which it shares a 1,300 kilometre (830 mile) border.

Finland is preparing for a potentially historic decision "before midsummer" on whether to apply to join NATO as a deterrent against Russian aggression.

The Nordic nation of 5.5 million has traditionally been militarily non-aligned, in part to avoid provoking its eastern neighbour, with which it shares a 1,300 kilometre (830 mile) border.

But Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 saw public support for joining NATO double from 30 to 60 percent, according to a series of polls.

"Never underestimate the capacity of Finns to take rapid decisions when the world changes," former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb told AFP.

Himself a long-time NATO advocate, Stubb now believes Finland making a membership application is "a foregone conclusion" as Finns re-evaluate their relationship with their neighbour.

Next week a government-commissioned national security review will be delivered to parliament, the Eduskunta, to help Finnish MPs make up their own minds, before it is put to a vote.

"We will have very careful discussions but not taking any more time than we have to," Prime Minister Sanna Marin told a news conference on Friday.

"I think we will end the discussion before midsummer," she added.

"My guess is that the application will be filed sometime during the month of May" in time for the June NATO summit in Madrid, Stubb said.

Change of heart


Finland declared independence in 1917 after 150 years of Russian rule, only for its vastly outnumbered army to fight off an attempted Soviet invasion during the Second World War inflicting heavy losses on the Red Army.

Hostilities ended in a peace deal that saw Finland ceding several border areas to the Soviet Union.

Finnish leaders agreed to remain neutral during the Cold War in exchange for guarantees from Moscow that it would not invade.

The country's forced neutrality to appease its stronger neighbour coined the term "Finlandization".

Finland has remained outside the transatlantic military alliance, and despite some cuts after the Cold War it has focused on maintaining well-funded defence and preparedness capabilities.

"We're able to mobilise 280,000 to 300,000 men and women within a matter of days," Stubb said, adding that 900,000 reserves could also be called up.

Last week Finland's government agreed a 40-percent hike in defence spending by 2026, to further strengthen the country's position.

"We have walked a long way when it comes to our security policies, and they have worked so far," said Centre Party MP Joonas Kontta.

Like the majority of his parliamentary colleagues, the 32-year-old used to think that NATO membership was "something that we don't need at the moment".

But Russia's invasion "changed something in Europe in a way that can't be changed back", he told AFP, and Kontta recently announced that he now believes it is time to seek to join the alliance.

A number of MPs have also recently announced similar changes of heart regarding Finland's "NATO question" -- although many more are keeping their positions to themselves awaiting more detailed discussions.

Anti-NATO minority


Only six of Finland's 200 MPs in a recent poll by public broadcaster Yle openly voiced anti-NATO views, including Markus Mustajarvi from the Left Alliance party

Finland and Sweden's non-alignment "has brought stability to the whole of Northern Europe", the Lapland MP told AFP.

Mustajarvi questions whether NATO's Article 5 commitment to mutual defence would provide genuine protection in case of an attack.

Instead he cites Finland's own defence capabilities which are "so strong that they would force Russia to think what price it would pay for attacking".

Despite receiving "all sorts of feedback" from the public and his fellow MPs over his stance, Mustajarvi insists he has "thought this through to the end and so far I don't see a reason to change my position".

Grey zone


Since Russia's attack, Finland's leadership has undertaken an intensive series of talks to canvass opinion from other NATO states about a possible membership bid.

Along with neighbouring Sweden, Finland has received public assurances from secretary general Jens Stoltenberg that the alliance's door remains open, as well as expressions of support from numerous members including the US, UK, Germany, France and Turkey.

But attempting to join NATO would likely be seen as a provocation by the Kremlin, for whom the expansion of the US-led alliance on its borders has been a prime security grievance.

Finland's president Sauli Niinisto has warned that Russia's response could be "on the brash side", including airspace, territorial violations and hybrid attacks.

The Kremlin has pledged to "rebalance the situation" in the event of Finland joining NATO.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has acknowledged that Russia could seek to destabilise a membership bid during the "grey zone" between an application and its ratification by all 30 NATO states, which could take four months to a year.

"Finland has always tried to stay away from the grey zone," Stubb said, but he believes that Finland has the resilience to withstand potential Russian aggression or hybrid attacks.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Airlines Evaluate Flight Cancellations Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
Starmer Invites Innovators to Join Government Talent Scheme
UK Economy’s Strong Opening Quarter Shows Signs of Cooling
Harrods Seeks Court Order to Secure Al Fayed Estate for Victims
BA and Singapore Airlines Cancel Dubai Flights Amid Middle East Tensions
Trump Faces Backlash from MAGA Base Over Iran Strikes
Meta Bets $14 B on Alexandr Wang to Drive AI Ambitions
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
FedEx Founder Fred Smith, ‘Heart and Soul’ of the Company, Dies at 80
Chinese Factories Shift Away from U.S. Amid Trump‑Era Tariffs
Pimco Seizes Opportunity in Japan’s Dislocated Bond Market
Labubu Doll Drives Pop Mart to Status as China’s Most Valuable Toy Maker
Global Coal Demand Defies Paris Accord Goals
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
BBC Demands Perplexity AI Immediately Stop Using Its Content
Telegram Founder: I Will Leave My Fortune to Over 100 of My Children
Political Turmoil Resurfaces in Belgium Amid Economic Concerns
Fed policymakers divided on timing of interest rate cuts
Trump signals imminent agreement with Harvard University
Inheritance tax referendum alarms Swiss billionaire community
Japan cancels bilateral security meeting amid US defence demands
AI skeptic Emily Bender warns that ‘the emperor has no clothes’
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
×