Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, Feb 05, 2025

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

What to make of the dozens of classified US Defence Department documents - maps, charts and photographs - now circulating on the internet?

Complete with timelines and dozens of impenetrable military acronyms, the documents, some of them marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine.

They tell of the casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive.

How real are these printed pages, unfolded and photographed, possibly on someone's dining room table? And what do they tell us, or the Kremlin, that we did not already know?

First things first: this is the biggest leak of secret American information on the war in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion 14 months ago. Some of the documents are as much as six weeks old, but the implications are huge.

Pentagon officials are quoted as saying the documents are real.

Information on at least one of them appears to have been crudely altered in a later version, but out of a dump of as many as 100 documents, that seems a relatively minor detail.

BBC News has reviewed more than 20 of the documents. They include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.

It says when the brigades will be ready and lists all the tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery pieces that are being provided by Ukraine's Western allies.

But it notes that "equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness".

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000


One map includes a "mud-frozen ground timeline", assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.

After a winter that has tested Ukraine's air defences to the limit, there's also a sobering analysis of Kyiv's diminishing air defence capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure and its frontline troops.

Not only do the leaked documents say a lot about the state of Ukraine's military - they also talk about some of Washington's other allies. From Israel to South Korea, the documents reveal internal debates those countries are having about Ukraine and other sensitive issues.

Some of the documents are marked top secret, others to be shared only with America's closest intelligence allies.


How much of this is new?


A lot of the detail here is familiar. There's just a lot more of it, and it's all in one place.

Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.

The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.

In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.

Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.

A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".

All of which brings us to the question of who leaked the documents, and why?


'Here, have some leaked documents'


The story of how the documents found their way from the messaging platform Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has already been told by Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence group Bellingcat.

Mr Toler says it has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but charts their appearance on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March.

On 4 March, following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the computer game Minecraft, one user wrote "here, have some leaked documents", before posting 10 of them.

It is an unusual, but hardly unique form of leak.

In 2019, ahead of the UK general election, documents relating to US-UK trade relations appeared on Reddit, 4Chan and other sites.

At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated in Russia.

In another case, last year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents, apparently in an effort to win arguments among themselves.

The latest leak is more sensitive, and potentially damaging.

Ukraine has zealously guarded its "operational security" and cannot be happy that such sensitive material has appeared at such a critical moment.

Ukraine's spring offensive could represent a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter dynamics on the battlefield and set conditions for peace talks later.

In Kyiv, officials have spoken about a possible disinformation campaign by Russia.

Other military bloggers have suggested the opposite: that it is all part of a Western plot to mislead Russian commanders.

Crucially, there is nothing in the documents leaked so far that points to the direction or thrust of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

The Kremlin ought to have a pretty good idea already of the scope of Ukraine's preparations (although Moscow's intelligence failures have been much in evidence throughout the war), but Kyiv needs to keep its enemy guessing about how the campaign will unfold, in order to maximise the chances of success.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
European Union Proposes Reforms to 1951 Refugee Convention
China's humanoid robots poised to transform everyday living and spiritual functions.
Changes in US tariffs on Chinese products could affect consumers more significantly than they do China.
How Innovations in China's Humanoid Robots Ignite Fierce Competition with the US
Germany Experiences 34% Decrease in Asylum Applications During Migration Discussion
Experts Challenge Conviction of UK Nurse Lucy Letby for Baby Killings
AfD Chief Alice Weidel Enhances Global Standing Through Meeting with Viktor Orban
Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party Leads Poll Amid Growing Public Demand for Change
Conor Murphy Steps Down as Northern Ireland Economy Minister to Join Irish Parliament
Over 1 Million Face Penalties After Missing HMRC Self-Assessment Tax Deadline
Scottish Government Denies Plans to Ban Cat Ownership Amid Controversy
Bridget Phillipson Urges Parents to Prioritize School Attendance Amid Rising Absence Rates
Keir Starmer Advocates for Stronger UK-EU Security Partnership in Brussels
Six English Councils Granted Permission to Raise Council Tax Bills Above Cap Amid Financial Struggles
Keir Starmer Faces Growing Backlash Over Potential Approval of Rosebank Oilfield
AI Consciousness Raises Ethical Concerns, Say Experts
Families Urge NHS England to Release Full Report on Nottingham Triple Homicide
NHS Initiates Largest AI Trial for Breast Cancer Detection
UK Tightens Regulations on Online Sales of Weight-Loss Injections
Gambling Ads Shown to Parents on Baby Monitor App, Raising Concerns
Ancient Irish Rainforests at Risk Due to the Growth of Monoculture Plantations
EU Leaders Deliberate on Defense Strategy Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
EU Leaders Convene Important Summit on Defense in Response to Rising Tensions
Trump Directs Establishment of U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, Considers TikTok Purchase
Britain Considers U.S. Gas Imports in Response to Possible Trump Tariffs
French Prime Minister Bayrou Confronts Several No-Confidence Votes Regarding the 2025 Budget
Shutdown of USAID Headquarters in Light of U.S. Government Reduction Initiatives
President Trump Launches Establishment of U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund with Possible TikTok Purchase
Investigation Launched Following Viral Video of Bodybuilder's Airport Prank
Cooling Blankets: A Remedy for Those Who Sleep Hot or Just a Marketing Ploy?
Trump Wins Again as Canada Agrees to Strengthen Border Security
Trump Seeks Rare Minerals from Ukraine in Exchange for U.S. Support
EU Leaders Reach Consensus to Increase Defence Expenditure in Response to Growing Security Threats
UK Business Confidence Declines Amid Economic Uncertainty, Lloyds Survey Shows
Abhishek Sharma's Century Secures India a 4-1 T20 Series Win Over England
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will welcome German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks at Chequers.
Australian soccer sensation Sam Kerr confronts a racial abuse trial in London.
Lloyds and Barclays Bank Customers Experience Service Outages
Thames Water Seeks Court Approval for £3 Billion Rescue Plan Amid Crisis
UK Manufacturing Activity Contracts for Fourth Consecutive Month in January, PMI Shows
Ex-British Soldier Receives Sentence for Espionage on Behalf of Iran and Fleeing Custody
Emergency Crews Deployed on Santorini as Earthquake Swarm Raises Concerns
Wall Street Journal Criticizes Trump's Trade War with Canada and Mexico
Trump Freezes Tariffs on Mexico After Agreement on Border Security
Nearly 96% of New Cars Registered in Norway in January Were Electric
One Dead, Thousands Evacuated as Floods Hit North Queensland
Bart De Wever Appointed Belgium's New Prime Minister
Apple Abandons AR Glasses Project Amid Struggles with Technology and Market Demand
US Man Receives Photo Instead of Drill After Placing Order on Chinese Website
U.S. Clinical Trial Investigates Medication to Prolong Dogs' Lifespan
×