Vietnam Faces Up to $25 Billion Export Loss as U.S. Tariffs Bite
United Nations projects nearly one-fifth drop in Vietnam’s U.S. exports with significant impact on GDP and export sectors
Vietnam risks losing up to twenty-five billion dollars in annual exports to the United States due to tariffs imposed on August seventh, according to new estimates from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The U.S. duties, amounting to approximately twenty percent on Vietnamese goods, could reduce Vietnam’s exports by about nineteen point two percent, with footwear exports already down five point five percent.
In August 2025, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. fell two percent from July to thirteen point ninety-four billion dollars, while year-to-date shipments for the first eight months rose approximately twenty-six point four percent to ninety-nine point zero five billion dollars, suggesting both strain and continued growth.
The UNDP estimates that should the tariffs be fully passed on to U.S. consumers, the drop in exports could shave roughly five percent off Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product.
However, some impacts may be softened by Vietnam’s efforts to diversify export markets, increased domestic spending, and partial absorption of costs by exporters.
Vietnam has also warned that stricter rules targeting goods transshipped through Vietnam—or those using Chinese inputs—could raise duties to forty percent, which may amplify risk for sectors heavily dependent on such supply chains.
While electronics items enjoy current exemptions, they account for nearly twenty-eight percent of Vietnam’s total exports to the U.S. Even if these waivers remain, UNDP projects exports could still fall by around eighteen billion dollars under adverse scenarios.
Vietnamese ministries have not yet responded with official comment on the latest projections, even as economic forecasts are adjusted and private sector concerns grow over the long-term fallout from what may be one of its steepest trade shocks in decades.
The U.S. duties, amounting to approximately twenty percent on Vietnamese goods, could reduce Vietnam’s exports by about nineteen point two percent, with footwear exports already down five point five percent.
In August 2025, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. fell two percent from July to thirteen point ninety-four billion dollars, while year-to-date shipments for the first eight months rose approximately twenty-six point four percent to ninety-nine point zero five billion dollars, suggesting both strain and continued growth.
The UNDP estimates that should the tariffs be fully passed on to U.S. consumers, the drop in exports could shave roughly five percent off Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product.
However, some impacts may be softened by Vietnam’s efforts to diversify export markets, increased domestic spending, and partial absorption of costs by exporters.
Vietnam has also warned that stricter rules targeting goods transshipped through Vietnam—or those using Chinese inputs—could raise duties to forty percent, which may amplify risk for sectors heavily dependent on such supply chains.
While electronics items enjoy current exemptions, they account for nearly twenty-eight percent of Vietnam’s total exports to the U.S. Even if these waivers remain, UNDP projects exports could still fall by around eighteen billion dollars under adverse scenarios.
Vietnamese ministries have not yet responded with official comment on the latest projections, even as economic forecasts are adjusted and private sector concerns grow over the long-term fallout from what may be one of its steepest trade shocks in decades.
