Beautiful Virgin Islands

Sunday, Feb 22, 2026

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement.

However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said.

The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said.

The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July, the statement said.

Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance, 55 per cent, of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year, the so-called spring predictability barrier, it said.

"The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Nina's cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight year period was the warmest on record," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures," said Mr Taalas.

The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change.

There is a 93 percent likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record. There is also a 50:50 chance of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, according to a study last year by the UK's Met Office, which is WMO's lead centre for annual to decadal climate predictions.

The current La Nina began in September 2020 with a brief break in the boreal summer of 2021.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation.

It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Nino in affected regions.

La Nina has been associated with the persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and large parts of South America as well as above average rainfall in South East Asia and Australasia.

The El Nino and La Nina phenomenon occurs naturally. But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.

El Nino and La Nina are major, but not the only, drivers of the Earth's climate system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

A return to near-normal ENSO conditions is predicted for the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures are generally predicted over other oceanic regions.

This contributes to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to the GSCU.

Even though La Nina is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the canonical rainfall impacts of La Nina may still continue.

The lingering impacts of multi-year La Nina is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Nina event.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Metropolitan Police Deploys Palantir-Powered AI to Flag Potential Officer Misconduct
UK Parliament Rebukes Police Over Ban on Israeli Football Fans
Britain Emerges Among a Small Group of Nations Without a Religious Majority
UK’s Manufacturing Base at Risk as Soaring Energy Costs Weigh on Industry
Matt Goodwin’s Unconventional Campaign for Reform UK in the Gorton and Denton By-Election
US Military Movements in the UK Spark Speculation Over Preparations Related to Iran Tensions
UK Faces Significant Economic Risk From Trump’s New Global Tariff Regime
UK Defence Secretary Signals Intent to Deploy British Troops to Ukraine
UK Students Mark Lunar New Year as Universities Adjust to New Equality Compliance Rules
UK Government Weighs Removing Prince Andrew from Line of Succession After Arrest
Prince Andrew’s Arrest in UK Rekindles Scrutiny Over US Handling of Epstein Records
Trump’s Strategic Warning to UK Over Chagos Islands Deal Sparks Diplomatic Whiplash
Starmer Government Postpones Local Elections Affecting 4.5 Million Voters
UK Economy Remains Fragile Despite Recent Upturn in Headline Indicators
UK Businesses Face Fresh Uncertainty Following US Tariff Ruling
Reform UK’s Senior Figures Face Scrutiny Over Remarks on Women and Family Policy
UK Electric Vehicle Drive Threatened by Shortage of 44,000 Qualified Technicians
University of Kentucky Trustees Advance Academic Reforms and Approve Coliseum Plaza Purchase
Boris Johnson Calls for Immediate Deployment of UK Troops to Support Ukraine
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
North Korea's capital experiences a significant construction boom with the development of a new city district dubbed 'Pyonghattan'.
New electric vehicle charging service eliminates waiting times
Vox Populi confronts Justin Trudeau at Davos over vaccination policies
Poland's President Karol Nawrocki ENDS support for Ukrainian citizens:
The mayor of Rotherham in Britain
UK Confirms Preferential U.S. Trading Terms Will Continue After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
U.S. and U.K. to Hold Talks on Diego Garcia as Iran Objects to Potential Military Use
UK Officials Weigh Possible Changes to Prince Andrew’s Position in Line of Succession Amid Ongoing Scrutiny
British Police Probe Epstein’s UK Airport Links and Expand High-Profile Inquiries
Early 2026 Data Suggests Tentative Recovery for UK Businesses and Households
UK Introduces Digital-First Passport Rules for Dual Citizens in Border Control Overhaul
Unable to Access Live Financial Data for January UK Surplus Report
UK ‘Working Closely with US’ to Assess Impact of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Trump Criticises UK Decision to Restrict Use of Bases in Potential Iran Strike Scenario
UK Foreign Secretary and U.S. State Chief Hold Strategic Talks as Tensions Rise Over Joint Air Base
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
UK Competition Watchdog Flags Concerns Over Proposed Getty Images–Shutterstock Merger
Trump Reasserts Opposition to UK Chagos Islands Proposal, Urges Stronger Strategic Alignment
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash Accuses Prime Minister of Lying to Australians
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
×