A substantial majority of voters in the United Kingdom believe immigration is increasing, even as official figures show net migration has fallen sharply, according to a new poll that highlights a significant gap between public perception and statistical reality.

The survey by More in Common found that approximately two-thirds of respondents think immigration levels are rising, despite data indicating that net migration fell to around two hundred and four thousand in the year ending June 2025 — a decline of more than two-thirds from recent peaks.

This disconnect has become a central feature of the national debate on migration and has compounded political pressures on the government to respond to public concerns.

The misperception is particularly acute among supporters of the Reform UK party, where large majorities believe migration continues to climb even though overall figures show a marked decrease.

Confidence in the ruling Labour government’s ability to manage immigration effectively remains low, with just eighteen per cent of voters expressing confidence in its handling of the issue.

Public concerns have been fuelled by highly visible narratives around small boat crossings in the English Channel, which accounted for a small fraction of total arrivals but have dominated media and political discourse.

Experts and analysts say that the gap between perception and reality reflects broader challenges in public understanding of migration flows, with many people overestimating the scale of asylum-related arrivals and underestimating work and study migration — which make up the majority of inflows.

Other research indicates that public opinion on immigration remains nuanced, with significant numbers supporting certain types of migration, such as for healthcare and education, even as overall concern about numbers persists.

Political strategists warn that the perception of rising immigration could influence voting behaviour and shape commitments on migration policy as the political landscape evolves.