Significant proposed cuts to the UK’s overseas aid budget could lead to dire consequences for child health in the world's poorest countries, with projections indicating that hundreds of thousands of children may die as a result of reduced funding for a pivotal vaccination program supported by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi).

Gavi, which has relied heavily on UK contributions in previous years, warns that even modest reductions in funding could result in millions fewer vaccinations, escalating the risk of preventable child deaths.

Data compiled by Gavi’s experts suggests that maintaining the UK’s financial contribution at its current level rather than implementing a planned increase of 10% could lead to the vaccination of 8 million fewer children globally, with an estimated subsequent death toll of around 200,000 children.

Aid organizations have already been anticipating a decrease in funding for Gavi, particularly in light of recent government decisions to redirect resources toward defense spending following the resignation of Anneliese Dodds, the minister for international development.

With the announcement of cuts to overseas aid, agencies are preparing for a significant reduction in the UK’s budgetary support for Gavi, which could fall by as much as 40%.

Such a decrease would exacerbate the humanitarian situation and potentially lead to hundreds of thousands more preventable deaths among children.

Currently, the UK contributes more than £2 billion to Gavi, a crucial source of vaccination services for underprivileged children across 78 countries.

Gavi's operations have been recognized for their cost-effectiveness, having successfully vaccinated more than 1.1 billion children over 25 years, which has contributed to the prevention of nearly 18 million deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases.

Independent aid officials have cautioned that while reducing funding may appear economically feasible, the implications for child mortality and global health could be severe.

The Foreign Office has stated that decisions regarding specific programs and their funding levels will not be finalized until the upcoming spending review, amid calls from political figures to prioritize vaccination efforts and humanitarian relief, particularly in crisis-stricken regions like Sudan and Gaza.

However, the reduction in the overall aid budget—from 0.5% of gross national income to a planned 0.3% by 2027—has drawn alarm from multiple stakeholders, especially since a substantial portion of this budget is now allocated to domestic issues such as housing asylum seekers.

Experts estimate that the net allocation for overseas aid could dip to as low as 0.23% of GNI, marking the lowest proportion recorded in UK history.

This decrease follows a period during which the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) faced severe operational cuts, further impacting global vaccination and health initiatives.

The British Council has also expressed concern regarding impending budgetary cuts, with a potential loss of £250 million that could hinder its activities in up to 40 countries.

The Council emphasizes the crucial role of soft power in maintaining the UK's global influence, countering disinformation, and fostering international cooperation.

Scott McDonald, the chief executive of the British Council, highlighted the delicate balance between necessary defense spending and the imperative to sustain the UK’s international standing through culture and education.

McDonald noted the risk of eroding the UK’s reputation and influence if cuts to the aid budget are not managed with care, underlining the importance of building alliances for long-term security objectives.