Beautiful Virgin Islands


ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists

ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists

One of the world's largest oil companies accurately forecast how climate change would cause global temperature to rise as long ago as the 1970s, researchers claim.

ExxonMobil's private research predicted how burning fossil fuels would warm the planet but the company publicly denied the link, they suggest.

The academics analysed data in the company's internal documents.

ExxonMobil denied the allegations.

"This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how "Exxon Knew" are wrong in their conclusions," the company told BBC News.

Corporations including ExxonMobil have made billions from selling fossil fuels that release emissions that scientists, governments and the UN say cause global warming.

The findings suggest that ExxonMobil's predictions were often more accurate than even world-leading Nasa scientists.

"It really underscores the stark hypocrisy of ExxonMobil leadership, who knew that their own scientists were doing this very high quality modelling work and had access to that privileged information while telling the rest of us that climate models were bunk," Naomi Oreskes, professor of the history of science at Harvard University, told BBC News.

The findings are a "smoking gun", suggests co-author Geoffrey Supran, associate professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami.

"Our analysis allows us for the first time to actually put a number on what Exxon knew, which is that the burning of their fossil fuel products was going to heat the planet by about 0.2C of warming every decade," he said.

Researchers have never before quantified the scientific evidence in ExxonMobil's documents, he says.

In response, ExxonMobil pointed to a 2019 US court ruling that concluded: "ExxonMobil executives and employees were uniformly committed to rigorously discharging their duties in the most comprehensive and meticulous manner possible."

"ExxonMobil is committed to being part of the solution to climate change and the risks it poses," a spokesperson said.


A chart that researchers say compares ExxonMobil's predictions of temperature rise with actual temperature increase

"Their excellent climate modelling was at least comparable in performance to one of the most influential and well-regarded climate scientists of modern history," Prof Supran said, comparing ExxonMobil's work to Nasa's James Hansen who sounded the alarm on climate in 1988.

Prof Oreskes said the findings show that ExxonMobil "knowingly misled" the public and governments. "They had all this information at their disposal but they said very, very different things in public," she explained.

Previous investigations have unearthed Exxon documents that suggest the company sought to spread doubt about the science. One internal paper set out the "Exxon position" to "emphasise the uncertainty in scientific conclusions" about the greenhouse effect.

The research, published in the academic journal Science, also suggests that ExxonMobil had reasonable estimates for how emissions would need to be reduced in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change in a world warmed by 2C or more.

Their scientists also correctly rejected the theory that an ice age was coming at a time when other researchers were still debating the prospect.

Prof Oreskes and Prof Supran carried out the research after journalists in 2015 uncovered evidence suggesting ExxonMobil's knew about climate change, but were accused by ExxonMobil of "cherry-picking" the truth.

They plotted scientific data in more than 100 publications from Exxon and Exxon Mobil between 1977 and 2014 to calculate their predictions of global temperature rise.

Prof Oreskes suggests that it showed the company was internally using climate science when publicly it called the models "speculative" or "bad science".

The findings add to ongoing pressure on the company over what it knew about climate change. Campaigners allege it spread misinformation in order to protect its business interests in fossil fuels and are suing the company in a number of US courts.

In May a court in Massachusetts, US ruled that ExxonMobil must face trial over accusations it lied about climate change.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
UK General Election: Sunak Acknowledges Disappointing Results but Maintains Confidence
I have a dream, MLK inspiring speech
Sword Attack Victim Henry De Los Rios Polonia Grateful for NHS Care
Aretha Franklin, Marvis Staples - Oh Happy Day
Post Office Lawyer Jarnail Singh Faces Allegations of Lying About Software Bugs
BVI Freedom Song
Post Office Scandal: Expert Accused of Giving False Court Testimony
Billy Preston - You Can't Beat God Giving (Live)
Suspended Tory Councillor Puts Essex Council Majority at Risk
VIRGIN ISLANDS REGGAE CARIBBEAN RIDDIMZ
UK Government Loses Court Case Over Inadequate Climate Actions
Oh Happy Day Edwin Hawkins - Anthony Brown w FBCG Combined Choir
Apple Faces Significant Sales Decline Amid AI Integration Delay
'Stand by Me' performed by Karen Gibson and The Kingdom Choir
10,000 Black Cab Drivers Sue Uber for $313M Over Alleged Breach of London Booking Rules
National Anthem of the British Virgin Islands - Oh, Beautiful Virgin
Today’s headlines
Hello Dolly
Interns Investigate Unsafe UK Criminal Convictions
for KING & COUNTRY - Amen (Reborn) [feat. Lecrae & The WRLDFMS Tony Wi
Contaminated Blood Inquiry Highlights Omitted Risks
Bob Marley - Get Up Stand Up
Kwasi Kwarteng Criticizes Liz Truss as 'Trumpian'
Yes He Can
SNP Overcomes Labour Confidence Motion
What A Friend We Have In Jesus
Study Finds Gender Health Gap in UK
Unforgettable
Reform UK Endorses Conspiracy Theorist Candidates
Touch The Hem Of His Garment
Family's Deportation Fears Before Channel Tragedy
The Lord's Prayer
Labour's Compromise on Zero-Hours Contracts
THE GOD MOVEMENT...BEAUTIFUL BVI
Risk of Rwandan Deportation for Misclassified Lone Children
Siyahamba
Sadiq Khan Accuses Tories of Undermining London
Ray Charles And The Voices Of Jubilaton, Oh, Happy Day
London Daily Morning Headlines - Wednesday, May 1 2024
Ramblin' Rose
Amazon Cloud Sales Growth Accelerates
Protoje - Who Knows ft. Chronixx
Apple Recruits Google Staff for AI Development
Pressure - Virgin Islands Nice
Changpeng Zhao Sentenced to Four Months in Jail
Phil Wickham - House Of The Lord
S&P 500 Experiences Worst Month Pre-Fed Announcement
My God Is Real (Yes, God Is Real)
Columbia University's Hard Line on Student Protests
The Lion King Circle of Life by LEBO M. — LIVE at the HAVASI Symphonic
Biden Administration to Relax Marijuana Regulations
Louis Armstrong - When The Saints Go Marching In
Netanyahu's Firm Stance Amid Rafah Hostage Talks
Kanye West Sunday Service - hallelujah, salvation, and glory
BlackRock to Establish Saudi Investment Firm
Jonathan Nelson - I Believe (Island Medley
UK Food Delivery Firms to Check Riders' Immigration Status
From The Virgin Islands Sqad Up
Elon Musk Disbands Tesla’s Supercharger Team
Common, John Legend - Glory
Major Changes at Manchester United Under Ratcliffe
Anthony Evans vs. Jesse Campbell - If I Ain't Got You
Rap Lyrics as Trial Evidence in England and Wales
I have a dream, MLK inspiring speech
Rap Lyrics as Trial Evidence in England and Wales
Aretha Franklin, Marvis Staples - Oh Happy Day
Monty Panesar to Stand for George Galloway's Party
BVI Freedom Song
Sadiq Khan Leads in London Mayoral Polls
Billy Preston - You Can't Beat God Giving (Live)
UK Tory Chair on Party Funding
VIRGIN ISLANDS REGGAE CARIBBEAN RIDDIMZ
Brexit Checks to Increase Food Import Costs
Oh Happy Day Edwin Hawkins - Anthony Brown w FBCG Combined Choir
Legal Challenge to Cuts in England’s Cycling and Walking Budget
'Stand by Me' performed by Karen Gibson and The Kingdom Choir
Rising Homelessness in England
National Anthem of the British Virgin Islands - Oh, Beautiful Virgin
Potential Criminalization of Lying by Politicians in Wales
Hello Dolly
MPs Advocate for Work Rights for Asylum Seekers
for KING & COUNTRY - Amen (Reborn) [feat. Lecrae & The WRLDFMS Tony Wi
Home Office Loses Track of Rwanda Deportees
Bob Marley - Get Up Stand Up
Historic Memo Challenges Current UK Insurance Policy
Yes He Can
London Daily's Video newsletter
What A Friend We Have In Jesus
Labour Axes 'Levelling Up' Phrase
Unforgettable
UK Sanctions Ineffective Against Russian Economy
Touch The Hem Of His Garment
Humza Yousaf Resigns as Scotland’s First Minister
The Lord's Prayer
UK Plans Cuts to Disability Benefits
THE GOD MOVEMENT...BEAUTIFUL BVI
UK House Sales Increase by 12% in April
Siyahamba
FT and OpenAI Form Content Licensing Partnership
Ray Charles And The Voices Of Jubilaton, Oh, Happy Day
×