Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, Feb 05, 2025

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

The International Monetary Fund's prescription for dealing with the cost of living crisis is likely to be seized upon by Rishi Sunak's supporters as evidence that his blueprint is the right course for the UK government to take.

The world's lender of last resort has appealed for central banks to raise interest rates and for governments to take a responsible stance with public finances while warning of a harder impact from the global inflation shock.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) used its updated World Economic Outlook to take another red pen to growth forecasts as economies battle the impact of rising prices.

It said that growth was "stalling" in the world's three largest economies (the US, China and eurozone) as a consequence of the deteriorating picture for inflation, linked to the COVID pandemic and latterly Russia's war in Ukraine, forecasting that the problem would remain more stubborn than predicted in its previous update.

Chillingly it warned that under a "plausible" scenario, downside risks for the global economy including a complete shutdown in Russian gas supplies to Europe and prolonged zero-COVID lockdowns in China would result in one of the worst performances for output since 1970 if realised.

The fund's new forecasts saw global growth of 3.2% for 2022 - a downwards revision of 0.4% on April's forecast.

Much of that figure was accounted for by a massive 1.4% downgrade for the United States - the world's largest economy.

The IMF said it now expected growth of just 2.3% this year as a result of an inflation rate that, like in the UK, was at a 40-year high.

It said that disruption to trade flows with China was another big factor behind the downgrade and warned growth would stall further, to just 1%, in 2023.



The report downgraded its expectations for Chinese growth this year by 1.1% to just 3.3% as it also faces inflationary pressures but also battles COVID outbreaks through shutdowns of major cities that have inflicted huge damage on its manufacturing sector.

The UK, the IMF projected, would see a growth of 3.2% this year - above those of its biggest competitors including France and Germany - but it repeated its forecast that output would ease significantly to just 0.5% in 2023 to become the slowest among the G7.

Russia was tipped to see its economy contract by 6% this year and by 3.5% in 2023 as it grapples with the effects of Western sanctions.

The sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine have exacerbated the global inflation problem as it has forced countries to scramble for alternative supplies of key commodities including wheat, sunflower oil, oil and natural gas.

The IMF urged central bank and government action to help bring down inflationary pressures, with its fiscal prescription favouring the stance taken by former chancellor Rishi Sunak as he battles Liz Truss for the Tory leadership and keys to Number 10.

"With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers", the fund said.

"Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but the delay will only exacerbate them.

"Targeted fiscal support can help cushion the impact on the most vulnerable, but with government budgets stretched by the pandemic and the need for a disinflationary overall macroeconomic policy stance, such policies will need to be offset by increased taxes or lower government spending."

The Conservative leadership race has been dominated by the candidates' approach to the cost of living crisis.

Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, favours a "bold" tax cut agenda to prevent the economy from going into reverse while the former occupant of Number 11 has ruled out giveaways in the short term for fear of fuelling inflation further.

The Bank of England, for its part, has raised the Bank rate at each meeting since December last year but is under pressure to opt for a sharper hike at its meeting early next month.

Governor Andrew Bailey has said that a 50 basis points increase, which would take its core rate to 1.75%, is on the table but not necessarily on the cards.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the fund's chief economist, wrote: "Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate the hardship.

"Central banks that have started tightening should stay the course until inflation is tamed."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
European Union Proposes Reforms to 1951 Refugee Convention
China's humanoid robots poised to transform everyday living and spiritual functions.
Changes in US tariffs on Chinese products could affect consumers more significantly than they do China.
How Innovations in China's Humanoid Robots Ignite Fierce Competition with the US
Germany Experiences 34% Decrease in Asylum Applications During Migration Discussion
Experts Challenge Conviction of UK Nurse Lucy Letby for Baby Killings
AfD Chief Alice Weidel Enhances Global Standing Through Meeting with Viktor Orban
Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party Leads Poll Amid Growing Public Demand for Change
Conor Murphy Steps Down as Northern Ireland Economy Minister to Join Irish Parliament
Over 1 Million Face Penalties After Missing HMRC Self-Assessment Tax Deadline
Scottish Government Denies Plans to Ban Cat Ownership Amid Controversy
Bridget Phillipson Urges Parents to Prioritize School Attendance Amid Rising Absence Rates
Keir Starmer Advocates for Stronger UK-EU Security Partnership in Brussels
Six English Councils Granted Permission to Raise Council Tax Bills Above Cap Amid Financial Struggles
Keir Starmer Faces Growing Backlash Over Potential Approval of Rosebank Oilfield
AI Consciousness Raises Ethical Concerns, Say Experts
Families Urge NHS England to Release Full Report on Nottingham Triple Homicide
NHS Initiates Largest AI Trial for Breast Cancer Detection
UK Tightens Regulations on Online Sales of Weight-Loss Injections
Gambling Ads Shown to Parents on Baby Monitor App, Raising Concerns
Ancient Irish Rainforests at Risk Due to the Growth of Monoculture Plantations
EU Leaders Deliberate on Defense Strategy Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
EU Leaders Convene Important Summit on Defense in Response to Rising Tensions
Trump Directs Establishment of U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, Considers TikTok Purchase
Britain Considers U.S. Gas Imports in Response to Possible Trump Tariffs
French Prime Minister Bayrou Confronts Several No-Confidence Votes Regarding the 2025 Budget
Shutdown of USAID Headquarters in Light of U.S. Government Reduction Initiatives
President Trump Launches Establishment of U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund with Possible TikTok Purchase
Investigation Launched Following Viral Video of Bodybuilder's Airport Prank
Cooling Blankets: A Remedy for Those Who Sleep Hot or Just a Marketing Ploy?
Trump Wins Again as Canada Agrees to Strengthen Border Security
Trump Seeks Rare Minerals from Ukraine in Exchange for U.S. Support
EU Leaders Reach Consensus to Increase Defence Expenditure in Response to Growing Security Threats
UK Business Confidence Declines Amid Economic Uncertainty, Lloyds Survey Shows
Abhishek Sharma's Century Secures India a 4-1 T20 Series Win Over England
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will welcome German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks at Chequers.
Australian soccer sensation Sam Kerr confronts a racial abuse trial in London.
Lloyds and Barclays Bank Customers Experience Service Outages
Thames Water Seeks Court Approval for £3 Billion Rescue Plan Amid Crisis
UK Manufacturing Activity Contracts for Fourth Consecutive Month in January, PMI Shows
Ex-British Soldier Receives Sentence for Espionage on Behalf of Iran and Fleeing Custody
Emergency Crews Deployed on Santorini as Earthquake Swarm Raises Concerns
Wall Street Journal Criticizes Trump's Trade War with Canada and Mexico
Trump Freezes Tariffs on Mexico After Agreement on Border Security
Nearly 96% of New Cars Registered in Norway in January Were Electric
One Dead, Thousands Evacuated as Floods Hit North Queensland
Bart De Wever Appointed Belgium's New Prime Minister
Apple Abandons AR Glasses Project Amid Struggles with Technology and Market Demand
US Man Receives Photo Instead of Drill After Placing Order on Chinese Website
U.S. Clinical Trial Investigates Medication to Prolong Dogs' Lifespan
×