Beautiful Virgin Islands

Sunday, Apr 05, 2026

Trump said the stock market would crash if Biden won. The Dow just had its best month since 1987.

Trump said the stock market would crash if Biden won. The Dow just had its best month since 1987.

President Donald Trump repeatedly warned Americans that if they failed to reelect him, the stock market would implode. In reality, the opposite happened.

Between August and October alone, Trump sent six tweets saying markets would "crash" if Joe Biden were elected, using a word presidents typically avoid.

"The Dow Jones Industrial just closed above 29,000! You are so lucky to have me as your President," Trump wrote on September 2. "With Joe Hiden' it would crash."

Yet no post-election meltdown emerged. If anything, markets melted up as nightmare election scenarios were avoided and investors celebrated coronavirus vaccine breakthroughs from Pfizer and Moderna.

The S&P 500 notched its best election week rally since 1932. And despite a sharp pullback Monday, the Dow soared nearly 12% in November, its best month since January 1987. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed their best month since April.

"In terms of Biden being bad for the market, we can already see the opposite is true," said Daryl Jones, director of research at Hedgeye Risk Management.

Wall Street has moved on from Trump


There's no doubt that Trump's tax cuts and deregulation helped boost markets. His trade war with China and love of tariffs, however, were clear negatives for stocks.

Biden is signaling he won't adopt extreme policies that would rattle markets. His economic team, unveiled Monday, is headlined by Janet Yellen, the crisis-tested former Federal Reserve chair with whom investors are very comfortable.

"Biden is showing us that from a business and economic standpoint, he's likely to be moderate," Jones said.

The strong November performance on Wall Street partially reflects relief that the election removed a huge cloud of uncertainty, even if the votes took time to count. Before the election, there were serious concerns about a constitutional crisis and the transfer of power. But investors have largely shrugged off
Trump's avalanche of election-related lawsuits as a sideshow doomed to fail.

"The fear was there would be a seriously contested election," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. "Certainly, it's being contested but there's a recognition there's a very, very slim chance that President Trump will actually succeed in his bid to overturn the election results."

Gridlock beats blue wave


Even better from Wall Street's perspective, the election failed to produce the blue wave Democrats hoped for.

Democrats would need to win both Georgia runoff races in order to get control of the Senate, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking a 50/50 tie.

Republicans are the heavy favorites to retain control of the Senate, according to PredictIt, an online prediction market.

Divided government in 2021 means Biden won't be able to raise corporate and personal taxes, a huge relief to investors. It will also limit the ability of Democrats to pass sweeping climate legislation.

Markets are focused on 'game changer' vaccines


The celebration on Wall Street comes even as the suffering mounts on Main Street.

The pandemic returned this fall with a vengeance, with coronavirus infections and hospitalizations at record highs. Health restrictions are back, and federal relief is expiring.

All of this is hammering mom-and-pop shops, movie theaters, hotels, airlines and restaurants. Jobless claims have climbed in back-to-back weeks and the government jobs report due out on Friday is expected to show hiring slowed in November.

But investors are looking past the worsening pandemic and focusing instead on enormous progress on vaccines.

"The vaccine news is a real game changer," said Hooper. "The stock market has this great ability to look through immediate headwinds to a future that appears brighter."

Moderna (MRNA) said Monday that its vaccine is 100% effective against severe Covid-19. That's a huge positive given that just a few months ago there were concerns whether an effective vaccine could ever be developed.

Now, there is greater confidence of a stronger economic recovery in 2021 that will include hard-hit sectors like travel.

Bank of America economists predict global GDP will surge by 5.4% in 2021, the best year since 1973. US GDP is expected to increase by 4.5%, the strongest since 1999.

"A year of vaccine not virus, a year of reopening not lockdown, a year of recovery not recession," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, wrote in a note Monday.

The gap between rich and poor is getting wider


The market boom sends a positive signal that can encourage nervous consumers and corporations to spend instead of hunker down. That, in turn, can boost the real economy.

Yet the V-shaped recovery on Wall Street is another example of how the pandemic is worsening inequality. That's because millions of Americans don't get a boost from the market boom.

Only about half (52%) of American families have some level of investment in the market, mostly through 401(k)s and other retirement accounts, according to the Pew Research Center. Just 14% of households are directly invested in the market.

And the surging stock market is likely exacerbating the divide between rich and poor because affluent families have far more skin in the game.

As of the first quarter of 2020, the wealthiest 10% of American households owned 87% of all stocks and mutual funds, according to the Federal Reserve. The middle class, by contrast, owned just 6.6% of stocks, according to NYU professor Edward Wolff.

No matter who owns stocks, markets can't go up forever.

At some point, the vaccine optimism will all be priced in. The epic rebound on Wall Street — the S&P 500 is up a stunning 61% since the March 23 low — has driven up market valuations to levels unseen since the dotcom bubble.

Bank of America's Hartnett argued it would be "silly to think big stock market gains from here" won't cause negative responses, including higher inflation, higher taxes and higher bond yields. That's why he's advising clients to "sell into strength on vaccine in coming months."

"We expect peak prices in early '21," Hartnett wrote.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
UK Food Halls Defy Hospitality Slowdown, Emerging as Bright Spot in Challenging Market
UK Sets Firm Conditions for Military Action, Insisting on Legal Mandate and Clear Strategy
UK Medicines Regulator Launches Probe into Peptide Clinics Over Health Claims
New North Sea Drilling Unlikely to Significantly Cut UK Gas Imports, Analysis Finds
Woman Linked to UK’s First All-Female Terror Plot Faces Deportation
Downed US Aircraft Over Iran Linked to Operations from UK Airfield
Two Men and Teen Detained in UK Following Attack on Jewish Charity Ambulance
UK Police Launch Inquiry After Firearms Left Unattended Outside Mayor’s Residence
Giuffre Family Calls on King Charles to Meet Epstein Survivors During US Visit
Amber Wind Warning Issued as Storm Dave Approaches Parts of the United Kingdom
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Australia Visit Set to Draw Heightened Global Attention
UK Considers Entry Fees for Overseas Visitors at Major Museums Ahead of 2026 Travel Season
UK Prime Minister and Kuwait Crown Prince Coordinate Security Response After Regional Escalation
Calls Grow to Expand Fully Paid Maternity Leave for UK Teachers Amid Workforce Pressures
UK Secures Tariff-Free Access to US Market in Landmark Pharmaceuticals Agreement
Trump Projects Strength in Critique of UK Leadership and Naval Readiness
UK FinTech Setback as VibePay and Smartlayer Cease Operations Amid Funding Pressures
UK Leads Global Coalition of Over Forty Nations to Address Strait of Hormuz Crisis
UK Firms Urged to Accelerate Preparation as New Sustainability Reporting Rules Take Shape
UK Moves Rapid Sentry Air Defence System to Kuwait After Drone Strike Escalation
Transatlantic Relations Tested as UK Seeks Balance While Trump Reshapes Strategic Approach
Trump’s Strategic Pressure on UK Seen as Push for Stronger Alignment and Fairer Terms
UK Focuses on Trade Finance to Secure Critical Materials for Defence and Energy Sectors
Majority of UK Businesses Hit by Middle East Conflict While Confidence Holds Firm
UK Royal Navy Faces Renewed Scrutiny as Debate Intensifies Over Capability and Readiness
Reform UK Faces Mounting Distractions as Policy Agenda Struggles to Gain Traction
Investigation Launched Into Northern Cyprus IVF Clinics After UK Families Receive Incorrect Sperm
International Meeting Issues Unified Call to Safeguard Navigation Through Strait of Hormuz
Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Concerns Over UK Food and Medicine Supply Chains
UK Leads Coalition of Over Forty Nations Urging Iran to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
UK Secures Tariff-Free Access for Medicines in Landmark US Pharma Trade Agreement
King Charles III Invited to Address Joint Session of U.S. Congress in Rare Diplomatic Honor
Debate Grows Over Whether Expanded North Sea Drilling Can Reduce UK Energy Bills
UK Faces Heightened Risk of Jet Fuel Shortages, Airline Chief Warns
UK Ends Police Investigations into Lawful Social Media Posts After Review Finds Overreach
Abramovich Moves to Establish Charity for Frozen Chelsea Sale Proceeds Amid UK Dispute
Starmer Reaffirms NATO Commitment While Responding to Trump’s Strategic Critique
UK Aid Reductions Raise Fears of Severe Human Impact Across Parts of Africa
UK Signals Renewed Push for EU Cooperation as Iran Conflict Reshapes Security Landscape
Bank of England Signals Caution as Bailey Advises Markets Against Expecting Rate Hikes
UK to Convene Global Coalition to Restore Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
Trump Signals Possible NATO Reassessment, Emphasizes Stronger U.S. Strategic Autonomy
Australia Joins British-Led Efforts to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Tensions
King Charles Plans US State Visit as UK Strengthens Ties with Trump Leadership
UK Regulator Launches Investigation Into Microsoft’s Business Software Practices
Kanye West Set for High-Profile Return to UK Stage at Wireless Festival
Trump Presses Europe to Strengthen Commitment as Iran Conflict Escalates
UK to Deploy Additional Troops to Middle East Amid Rising Regional Tensions
UK Authorities Face Claims of Heavy-Handed Measures in Monitoring Released Pro-Palestine Activists
Trump Calls on UK to Secure Its Own Energy as Iran Conflict Intensifies
×