Beautiful Virgin Islands

Monday, Dec 08, 2025

UK economy beats expectations with November growth

UK economy beats expectations with November growth

The UK economy unexpectedly grew in November, helped by a boost from the World Cup, official figures show.

The economy expanded by 0.1%, helped by demand for services in the tech sector and in spite of households being squeezed by rising prices.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said pubs and restaurants also boosted growth as people went out to watch the football.

But it is still unclear whether soaring costs will tip the UK into recession.

Although the November reading of gross domestic product - a measure of all the activity by businesses, the government and people in the UK - was much better than anticipated, the overall picture still suggests the economy is stagnating as food and energy bills go up and people cut back.

The November increase marks a slowdown from a 0.5% rise in October, which was largely as a result of a bounceback from businesses shuttering to mark Queen Elizabeth II's funeral in September.

Economists have suggested that the latest data makes it less clear whether the UK will have entered a recession at the end of last year.

A recession is defined as two three-month periods, or quarters, of shrinking economic output in a row.

When a country is in recession, it is a sign that its economy is doing badly. During a downturn, companies typically make less money and the number of people unemployed rises. Graduates and school leavers also find it harder to get their first job.

Between July and September, UK economic output shrank by 0.3%.

Economic growth slowed sharply from October, partly due to strike action.

Rail workers and Royal Mail staff staged walkouts over pay and working conditions in November. Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, told the BBC's Today programme: "We definitely saw the impact of industrial action in today's figures.

"We saw reasonably large falls in rail transport, postal work and warehousing and this sector had the biggest drag on the economy in November."

There was continued industrial action in December, which widened to include NHS workers as well as Border Force staff at six UK airports. It could have a knock-on effect on next month's figures, which will reveal if the technical definition of a recession has been met.

Mr Morgan said the economy would have to shrink by 0.6% in December to send the UK into a recession.

Although there might have been a brief improvement in November, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) warned that concerns over the economy haven't yet been laid to rest.

The national chair of the FSB, Martin McTague, said: "With costs remaining high for small firms and households alike, policymakers cannot rest on their laurels. Inflation needs to be brought down, there remains huge uncertainty over energy prices and consumer confidence remains stubbornly low."


'The next 12 months are going to be tough'

At Gtech in Worcester, staff have definitely noticed the economy slowing down.

The company designs and sells cordless vacuum cleaners and other tools. After a busy pandemic, when people were keen to invest in keeping their homes and gardens looking nice, demand has begun to decline.

"We can feel that, yes, there's probably a recession coming on, people are finding things difficult," suggests Nick Grey, founder of the business. "They're kind of worried about their basic costs of heating and fuel and all the rest of it and the worries of inflation."

Despite that, the firm gave its staff a £1,000 cost-of-living payment in December, and gave its lower-paid staff a relatively more generous pay rise than the senior workers, as they are more affected by rising costs.

"I think the next 12 months are going to be tough," says Mr Grey. "We're just trying to make sure we do the basics well, and that when all this blows over, we're positioned well to grow and recover."

While the surprise today was that the economy grew in the month of November, the trend over three months is still down, by 0.3%. Overall the UK economy still appears to be weak but it is not certain it is in formal recession, and depends on the next set of figures released in a month.

The World Cup boosted pubs, pizza delivery and the ad industry helping the economy more than normal. But a series of previous monthly figures from the past year were revised down, leaving the less volatile three-month measure heading downwards. The impact of strikes was partly behind falls in transport and postal services of 4.7% and 3.1% respectively.

So a mixed bag of new and one-off factors, and statistical revisions that will probably still leave the Bank of England further raising rates next month, as it does its most thorough assessment of the state of the economy.

Speaking on Friday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he had a "clear plan" to halve inflation, which measures the rate at which prices rise and is at a 40-year high.

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the latest figures would "be deeply concerning to families already struggling with the soaring cost of living."

Pantheon Macroeconomics said whether or not the UK is already in recession, potentially causing more pain for households, is "hanging in the balance".

The ONS's Mr Morgan said that one in six businesses have told the ONS "they have been affected as a result of industrial action so we would have to see how the impact of industrial action feeds into our December figure in a few weeks' time".

While the manufacturing sector shrank in November and construction stagnated, the services sector, which includes a wide range of industries from hospitality to accountancy, grew.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
"The Great Filtering": Australia Blocks Hundreds of Thousands of Minors From Social Networks
Mark Zuckerberg Pulls Back From Metaverse After $70 Billion Loss as Meta Shifts Priorities to AI
Nvidia CEO Says U.S. Data-Center Builds Take Years while China ‘Builds a Hospital in a Weekend’
Indian Airports in Turmoil as IndiGo Cancels Over a Thousand Flights, Stranding Thousands
Hollywood Industry on Edge as Netflix Secures Near-$60 Bln Loan for Warner Bros Takeover
Drugs and Assassinations: The Connection Between the Italian Mafia and Football Ultras
Hollywood megadeal: Netflix acquires Warner Bros. Discovery for 83 billion dollars
The Disregard for a Europe ‘in Danger of Erasure,’ the Shift Toward Russia: Trump’s Strategic Policy Document
Two and a Half Weeks After the Major Outage: A Cloudflare Malfunction Brings Down Multiple Sites
UK data-regulator demands urgent clarity on racial bias in police facial-recognition systems
Labour Uses Biscuits to Explain UK Debt — MPs Lean Into Social Media to Reach New Audiences
German President Lays Wreath at Coventry as UK-Germany Reaffirm Unity Against Russia’s Threat
UK Inquiry Finds Putin ‘Morally Responsible’ for 2018 Novichok Death — London Imposes Broad Sanctions on GRU
India backs down on plan to mandate government “Sanchar Saathi” app on all smartphones
King Charles Welcomes German President Steinmeier to UK in First State Visit by Berlin in 27 Years
UK Plans Major Cutback to Jury Trials as Crown Court Backlog Nears 80,000
UK Government to Significantly Limit Jury Trials in England and Wales
U.S. and U.K. Seal Drug-Pricing Deal: Britain Agrees to Pay More, U.S. Lifts Tariffs
UK Postpones Decision Yet Again on China’s Proposed Mega-Embassy in London
Head of UK Budget Watchdog Resigns After Premature Leak of Reeves’ Budget Report
Car-sharing giant Zipcar to exit UK market by end of 2025
Reports of Widespread Drone Deployment Raise Privacy and Security Questions in the UK
UK Signals Security Concerns Over China While Pursuing Stronger Trade Links
Google warns of AI “irrationality” just as Gemini 3 launch rattles markets
Top Consultancies Freeze Starting Salaries as AI Threatens ‘Pyramid’ Model
Macron Says Washington Pressuring EU to Delay Enforcement of Digital-Regulation Probes Against Meta, TikTok and X
UK’s DragonFire Laser Downs High-Speed Drones as £316m Deal Speeds Naval Deployment
UK Chancellor Rejects Claims She Misled Public on Fiscal Outlook Ahead of Budget
Starmer Defends Autumn Budget as Finance Chief Faces Accusations of Misleading Public Finances
EU Firms Struggle with 3,000-Hour Paperwork Load — While Automakers Fear De Facto 2030 Petrol Car Ban
White House launches ‘Hall of Shame’ site to publicly condemn media outlets for alleged bias
UK Budget’s New EV Mileage Tax Undercuts Case for Plug-In Hybrids
UK Government Launches National Inquiry into ‘Grooming Gangs’ After US Warning and Rising Public Outcry
Taylor Swift Extends U.K. Chart Reign as ‘The Fate of Ophelia’ Hits Six Weeks at No. 1
250 Still Missing in the Massive Fire, 94 Killed. One Day After the Disaster: Survivor Rescued on the 16th Floor
Trump: National Guard Soldier Who Was Shot in Washington Has Died; Second Soldier Fighting for His Life
UK Chancellor Reeves Defends Tax Rises as Essential to Reduce Child Poverty and Stabilise Public Finances
No Evidence Found for Claim That UK Schools Are Shifting to Teaching American English
European Powers Urge Israel to Halt West Bank Settler Violence Amid Surge in Attacks
"I Would Have Given Her a Kidney": She Lent Bezos’s Ex-Wife $1,000 — and Received Millions in Return
European States Approve First-ever Military-Grade Surveillance Network via ESA
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
×