Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025

Will western leaders cut and run as the costs of the Ukraine war mount?

Will western leaders cut and run as the costs of the Ukraine war mount?

The longer the war goes on, the more the early anti-Putin momentum could be stalled by political stresses, an energy crisis and the huge bill for military and humanitarian aid
How long will the western democracies maintain present levels of support for Ukraine? The war’s economic impact, already manifesting itself through spiralling inflation and living costs, could have seriously negative political consequences for elected leaders in the US, Germany, France and the UK. If public willingness to make difficult sacrifices diminishes in the months ahead and the conflict slips off the front pages, will they stay the course?

As Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is keenly aware, western love for his country is already highly conditional. Military assistance is limited by Nato’s fear of provoking Vladimir Putin. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, is “over-eagerly” pushing for a negotiated deal at the risk, British officials claim, of overriding Kyiv’s best interests. Accused by his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen, of ignoring domestic problems, Macron’s poll lead has narrowed before this month’s two-round election.

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is currently fixated on the security of domestic energy supplies, not the future security of Europe. He knows Putin’s threat to cut off the gas, if implemented, would spark a national emergency. Scholz’s ruling coalition is creaking after a row with the Greens, who say he and his former boss, Angela Merkel, were “blind” to the risks of energy dependence on Russia.

This argument will only intensify, the longer the war continues – and not only in Germany. “Europe should stop spending up to €800m per day on purchasing Russian gas,” a new paper from the Centre for European Reform argues. “In 2021 … Russia exported more than 49% of its oil and 74% of its gas to Europe.” Halting all such purchases voluntarily, it said, might be the most effective sanction Europe could impose. “The political will to take such a radical step is still absent.” And, sadly, likely to remain so.

Joe Biden’s Nato and EU summitry last weekend did not produce a much-needed long-term plan for defeating Russia or better weapons for Ukraine’s defenders. But it did raise questions about his leadership. Biden’s crisis management has brought a modest poll boost. A new survey showed 61% of Americans believe higher petrol prices, up 20% in a month, are worth it to beat Russia. Most support additional US troop deployments.

But this spirit of solidarity is finite. Biden looks tired and vulnerable, with a low overall approval rating of 41%. Only 39% approve his handling of the economy. This is the battlefield that matters most in the US as a neo-Trumpist Republican party eyes a takeover of Congress in November. This is why the White House has tapped its strategic oil reserves. Will stumbling Biden stay the course, or seek a quick way out?

In the US and EU, early anti-Putin momentum seems to have stalled and may even be reversing. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, urged Brussels last week to swiftly introduce a fifth sanctions package. But foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the EU would “maintain” rather than “elevate” pressure on Moscow – the overly cautious approach favoured by Paris and Berlin which infuriates Poland and the Baltic republics.

Russia is actively exploiting these divisions. “The irresponsible Brussels sanctions already negatively affect the daily life of ordinary Europeans,” a foreign ministry official said. Western leaders risked making their peoples’ situation worse, the official added, amid fresh Russian threats to block food and agricultural exports. Meanwhile, China and India give succour to Putin by buying discounted Russian oil.

Ukraine-related pressures on western leaders are undoubtedly escalating across the board. The IMF warned last month that the war would cause “devastating” damage to the global economy as well as deep recessions in Russia and Ukraine. One forecast published last month predicted a £90bn hit to the UK alone as consumers and businesses struggle to recover from the pandemic.

In Spain, the far-right populist party, Vox, has used rising prices to fuel anti-government demonstrations. Similarly politicised protests have been seen in France, Italy and Greece. Worries about a wider war, meanwhile, may help Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Putin-friendly prime minister, win re-election this weekend.

It may be that western politicians will keep their word and honour their commitments to Ukraine. Or maybe not. Zelenskiy, for one, has his doubts. Speaking to the Economist, he expressed reservations about the trustworthiness and reliability of some leaders, including Boris Johnson.
Advertisement

“Britain wants Ukraine to win and Russia to lose … It is not performing a balancing act,” Zelenskiy said. But he added that he was unsure whether Johnson secretly hoped the war would drag on, thereby weakening Putin (and strengthening Johnson). Zelenskiy said Germany’s “pragmatic” Scholz was mistakenly “on the fence” and urged Orbán to pick a side. His harshest words were reserved for Macron’s government. “They are afraid,” he said bluntly.

If the war grinds on into the autumn, as many predict, economic pain, especially over energy costs, resulting political stresses, “sanctions fatigue”, increased public apathy, and the daunting financial cost of open-ended military assistance, humanitarian aid, and millions of refugees could combine to critically undermine governments’ support for Ukraine’s fight.

A western failure on this scale would be a disaster for Ukraine’s people, Europe’s security and common decency. But it’s possible to see how it might happen. Putin, of course, is watching, waiting for fatal cracks to appear. Yet he, too, faces deeply threatening internal tensions and challenges, as western intelligence chiefs noted last week. They suggest he’s at odds with his generals, is out of touch, and could be losing control.

Maybe this is how the war ends. Not with a bang or a shabby deal but with a slow collapse. Who will last longer: Putin the deluded, paranoid war criminal, or the motley crew of unreliable western politicians who oppose him?
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
France: Less Than a Month After His Appointment, the New French Prime Minister Resigns
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Hungary will not adopt the euro because the European Union is falling apart.
Sarah Mullally Becomes First Woman Appointed Archbishop of Canterbury
Mayor in western Germany in intensive care after stabbing
Australian government pays Deloitte nearly half a million dollars for a report built on fabricated quotes, fake citations, and AI-generated nonsense.
US Prosecutors Gained Legal Approval to Hack Telegram Servers
Macron Faces Intensifying Pressure to Resign or Trigger New Elections Amid France’s Political Turmoil
Standard Chartered Names Roberto Hoornweg as Sole Head of Corporate & Investment Banking
UK Asylum Housing Firm Faces Backlash Over £187 Million Profits and Poor Living Conditions
UK Police Crack Major Gang in Smuggling of up to 40,000 Stolen Phones to China
BYD’s UK Sales Soar Nearly Nine-Fold, Making Britain Its Biggest Market Outside China
Trump Proposes Farm Bailout from Tariff Revenues Amid Backlash from Other Industries
FIFA Accuses Malaysia of Forging Citizenship Documents, Suspends Seven Footballers
Latvia to Bar Tourist and Occasional Buses to Russia and Belarus Until 2026
A Dollar Coin Featuring Trump’s Portrait Expected to Be Issued Next Year
Australia Orders X to Block Murder Videos, Citing Online Safety and Public Exposure
Three Scientists Awarded Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discovery of Immune Self-Tolerance Mechanism
OpenAI and AMD Forge Landmark AI-Chip Alliance with Equity Option
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
France Names New Government Amid Political Crisis
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
×