Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025

Coronavirus re-emergence will be a threat until 2024, Harvard study finds

Coronavirus re-emergence will be a threat until 2024, Harvard study finds

Social distancing may need to continue or be used intermittently for next two years even if the virus were seemingly eliminated, researchers say.
A further outbreak of the coronavirus could occur as late as 2024 and social distancing may have to be extended until 2022 to contain the existing pandemic, a team of Harvard researchers has said.

The findings contrasted with Tuesday’s upbeat forecast by US President Donald Trump that some US states would be able to lift social distancing measures by the end of April.

The paper – by five researchers with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and published in the journal Science on Tuesday – found that a re-emergence of the virus was possible in the next four years.

It did not say social distancing measures would need to stay in place for the entire next two years, but suggested that “prolonged or intermittent distancing may be necessary into 2022” unless a vaccine or improved treatment was available, or critical care capacity – which has been widely overwhelmed – was increased substantially.

“Even in the event of apparent elimination, Sars-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024,” it said, referring to the virus’ official name.

Countries around the world have introduced social distancing measures such as restrictions on gatherings, school closures and reductions in non-essential outdoor activities, in efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus, despite having social and economic consequences.

The pandemic – the worst global public health crisis since the second world war – has killed more than 130,000 people worldwide, with the number of infections passing 2 million.

With over 600,000 cases and a death toll of more than 26,000, the United States has become the worst-hit country since the outbreak was first reported in China in December.

The World Health Organisation has warned that the infection caseload has not yet peaked, while the International Monetary Fund has said the recession caused by the virus was very likely to be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

China has formally lifted its blanket lockdown measures – in place for more than two months – in Wuhan, the outbreak’s initial epicentre. Most Chinese cities have loosened distancing measures as the nation declared an initial victory in getting the outbreak under control.

In Europe, some countries have made small steps or plans to ease social distancing measures to allow parts of the economy to function, although without declaring that it was time to return to normality.

Trump expressed optimism at a White House briefing on Tuesday that distancing measures in the US could soon be lifted.

“It’s going to be very, very close,” he said. “Maybe even before May 1.”

The Harvard study used US data on two previous coronaviruses to model possible transmission trajectories of Sars-CoV-2 in a variety of scenarios, with seasonal changes and durations of immunity as variables. In all modelled scenarios, the virus could “proliferate at any time of a year”, the report of the study said.

It also said that if immunity were not permanent, the virus would probably enter into regular circulation in most modelled scenarios, but if permanent immunity could be developed, the virus could disappear for five or more years.

Citing the experiences of China, South Korea and Singapore, it said intensive or effective distancing measures could allow for sufficient contact tracing and quarantining, and ease the burden on medical care systems.

The authors said their goal was not to endorse social distancing policies, but to identify likely transmission trajectories, complementary interventions such as increasing intensive care unit capacity, and treatments to reduce ICU demand, as well as to expand the options for bringing the pandemic under long-term control.

“Social distancing strategies could reduce the extent to which Sars-CoV-2 infections strain health care systems,” they wrote.

“We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the health care system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and/or not sustained for long enough.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Spotify’s Strange Move: The Feature Nobody Asked For – Returns
Manhunt in Australia: Armed Anti-Government Suspect Kills Police Officers Sent to Arrest Him
China Launches World’s Most Powerful Neutrino Detector
How Beijing-Linked Networks Shape Elections in New York City
Ukrainian Refugee Iryna Zarutska Fled War To US, Stabbed To Death
Elon Musk Sues Apple and OpenAI Over Alleged App Store Monopoly
2 Australian Police Shot Dead In Encounter In Rural Victoria State
Vietnam Evacuates Hundreds of Thousands as Typhoon Kajiki Strikes; China’s Sanya Shuts Down
UK Government Delays Decision on China’s Proposed London Embassy Amid Concerns Over Redacted Plans
A 150-Year Tradition to Be Abolished? Uproar Over the Popular Central Park Attraction
A new faith called Robotheism claims artificial intelligence isn’t just smart but actually God itself
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner Purchases Third Property Amid Housing Tax Reforms Debate
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Italian Facebook Group Sharing Intimate Images Without Consent Shut Down Amid Police Investigation
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
Sam Nicoresti becomes first transgender comedian to win Edinburgh Comedy Award
Builders uncover historic human remains in Lancashire house renovation
Australia Wants to Tax Your Empty Bedrooms
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
FBI Investigates John Bolton Over Classified Documents in High-Profile Raids
Report reveals OpenAI pitched national ChatGPT Plus subscription to UK ministers
Labour set to freeze income tax thresholds in long-term 'stealth' tax raid
Coca‑Cola explores sale of Costa coffee chain
Trial hears dog walker was chased and fatally stabbed by trio
Restaurateur resigns from government hospitality council over tax criticism
Spanish City funfair shut after serious ride injury
Suspected arson at Ilford restaurant leaves three in critical condition
Tottenham beat Manchester City to go top of Premier League
Bank holiday heatwave to hit 30°C before remnants of Hurricane Erin arrive
UK to deploy immigration advisers to West Africa to block fake visas
Nurse who raped woman continued working for a year despite police alert
Drought forces closures of England’s canal routes, canceling boat holidays
Sweet tooth scents: food-inspired perfumes surge as weight-loss drugs suppress appetites
Experts warn Britain dangerously reliant on imported food
Family of Notting Hill Carnival murder victim call event unmanageable
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
×