British Virgin Islands

Monday, Sep 21, 2020

Forecast Update: Extremely Active Hurricane Season Now Predicted

Forecast Update: Extremely Active Hurricane Season Now Predicted

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is urging greater caution as forecasters have updated predictions to extreme hurricane season.
According to the DDM, the August 5 forecast from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science has increased the intensity prediction for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, calling for an “extremely active” season.

Acting Director of the Department for Disaster Management, Dr. Evangeline Inniss-Springer, encouraged persons in the Territory to view the updated forecast as a reminder to finalise their emergency kits, test their family and business emergency plans, and closely monitor conditions to stay aware of any approaching storm conditions.

Dr. Inniss-Springer said, “Late summer and early fall tend to be the most active in terms of storm activity for our region, and the best way to ensure we stay safe as a territory is to remain prepared. This means it’s even more important to maintain our awareness of and readiness for possible storms.”

So far this season, the Atlantic has seen nine named storms and 2 hurricanes. Forecasters estimate an additional 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (those classified as Category 3 or stronger).

The university’s latest Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast cited factors including warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic, which, in turn, is associated with lower pressure levels and increased instability, all of which are favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation.

The report states that the probability of a major storm tracking into the Caribbean between now and November 30 is 63%.

Starting now and through the end of the peak of the season in October, the university will issue forecasts every two weeks.
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