Beautiful Virgin Islands

Sunday, Mar 15, 2026

Global recession likely in 2023 as inflation peaks: WEF chief economists

Global recession likely in 2023 as inflation peaks: WEF chief economists

Two-thirds of chief economists at the World Economic Forum have predicted a global recession in 2023 with continued geopolitical tensions, and further monetary tightening in the US and Europe.
The conclusion came in key findings of the Chief Economists Outlook, launched on Monday on the first day of the forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Of the majority predicting a recession, 18 percent said it was extremely likely, against a third of respondents who thought the opposite.

The outlook in September 2022 was slightly less gloomy, when 64 percent of respondents stated that a global recession was “somewhat likely” in 2023.

Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF, said: “With two-thirds of chief economists expecting a worldwide recession in 2023, the global economy is in a precarious position.

“The current high inflation, low growth, high debt, and high fragmentation environment reduces incentives for the investments needed to get back to growth and raise living standards for the world’s most vulnerable.

“Leaders must look beyond today’s crises to invest in food and energy innovation, education and skills development, and in job-creating, high-potential markets of tomorrow. There is no time to lose,” she added.

When surveyed about China, half of the respondents said they expected strong growth while the remainder predicted the opposite. Recent efforts to loosen the country’s zero-COVID policy were aimed at yielding a boost to growth, but it remained to be seen how disruptive the policy shift would be, namely in relation to health impacts.

Inflation was expected to vary significantly across regions, with 5 percent of the chief economists predicting high inflation in China, while 57 percent believed the surge would happen in Europe.

After a year of sharp and coordinated central bank tightening, the chief economists said the monetary policy stance would likely remain constant in most of the world this year.

A majority, however, expected further monetary tightening in Europe and the US – 59 percent and 55 percent, respectively. They highlighted that 2023 was likely to involve a difficult balancing act for policymakers between tightening too much or too little.

Business activity was also forecast to receive numerous blows in 2023. Nine out of 10 respondents expected both weak demand and high borrowing costs to weigh on firms, with more than 60 percent also pointing to higher input costs.

The chief economists expected the challenges to lead multinational businesses to cut costs, with 86 percent predicting that firms would reduce operational expenses, 78 percent expecting layoffs, and 77 percent seeing optimized supply chains this year.

The chief economists expected the global landscape to remain challenging for businesses – 100 percent of respondents said global geopolitical trends would continue redrawing the map of world economic activity along new geopolitical fissures and fault lines.

Such a wider economic shift would likely reverberate through trade, investment, labor, and technology flows, creating innumerable challenges as well as opportunities for business.

One positive signal was that supply chain disruptions were not expected to cause a significant drag on business activity in 2023.

While the forum’s Global Risks Report 2023 recently found the cost-of-living crisis to be among the world’s most urgent risks, the chief economists saw the crisis potentially nearing its peak, with 68 percent expecting it to have become less severe by the end of 2023.

A similar trend was evident in relation to the energy crisis, with 64 percent of respondents expecting some improvement by the year's end.

In addition, survey respondents highlighted several potential sources of optimism at the start of 2023, including the strength of household finances, growing signs of easing inflationary pressures, and continued labor-market resilience.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
UK Considers Targeted Aid for Vulnerable Households as Energy Costs Rise
Stellantis Urges Immediate Review of UK Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
Home Office Reverses Course to Allow Some Dual Nationals to Enter UK Using EU Passports
Reform UK Proposes Replacing Top Civil Servants With Officials Aligned to Government Agenda
Netflix Adds Critically Acclaimed ‘Best Film of 2025’ With Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score
‘The Sums Don’t Add Up’: UK Farmers Hit by Soaring Costs as Iran War Disrupts Global Supplies
Confidential UK Biobank Health Records Found Online After Researchers Accidentally Expose Data
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
×