Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, Sep 03, 2025

How Much Longer Can Space Remain Demilitarized?

How Much Longer Can Space Remain Demilitarized?

As access to space becomes easier and space-based assets cheaper, the prospect of demilitarization is bleak.
Last week, I argued that the global arms control system has seen better days, with accelerating nuclear modernization, conventional arms proliferation, and the rapid development of new categories of weaponry all occurring in a context of ever-sharper nationalism.

There is one area that has, until now, remained mostly regulated and peaceable: space. The Outer Space Treaty, which entered into force in October 1967, restricted the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space and declared space a global commons, freely accessible to all nations and governed by technical agreements to ensure safety and accountability.

By and large, the treaty has accomplished those goals: Various Cold War plans to place nuclear weapons in space came to naught, and even as rearmament gathers pace, today’s military space platforms are almost entirely used for reconnaissance, navigation, and communications.

That is not to suggest that there are no space weapon capabilities waiting in the wings. The United States and Soviet Union both worked on anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons starting in the 1960s; the U.S. successfully tested an aircraft-launched ASAT in 1985 and demonstrated an anti-satellite capability with a missile launched from a guided-missile cruiser in 2008. China, India, and Russia have also demonstrated similar capabilities using land-based platforms.

The idea — well-covered territory in both policy documents and fictional depictions of 21st-century great power conflict — is that using ASATs in the early stage of a conflict could blind and confuse an adversary either as an end in and of itself or to enable freedom of action by earthbound military formations.

But there are good reasons to be wary of casually destroying satellites. Many of those reasons come down to physics. Blow apart an object orbiting the Earth and it doesn’t simply vaporize or fall harmlessly to Earth; instead, it creates a cloud of debris zipping around the planet so fast that even a tiny piece can cause catastrophic harm to anything it encounters.

This is the principle that served — in exaggerated but not wholly fictional form — as the narrative driver of the film “Gravity.” And depending on their orbital altitude, the hazards of such debris remain for months or years after, continuing to imperil all uses of the Earth’s orbital neighborhood long after the conflict has ended.

Physics, of course, is unchanging; the space debris problem will remain regardless of technological or political developments. But another predicate of the demilitarization of space is changing, and rapidly.

To the extent that there was a detente in space, it was predicated in large part on the idea that satellites are almost impossibly rare and expensive assets; and that thanks to the dictates of physics, everyone’s were equally vulnerable. While cost estimates — and capabilities — are highly classified, one early-2000s American spy satellite broke into public awareness when members of Congress criticized its cost: nearly $10 billion.

And despite their veil of secrecy, the real-time location of such satellites can be tracked by any hobbyist with a clear view of the night sky and a decent pair of binoculars. Even the world’s superpowers do not have the resources to build a fleet of spy and communication satellites, a sufficient force of ASATs to knock out their adversaries’, and a backup fleet of satellites to replace casualties.

But the cost of launching mass into Earth orbit, which has remained stubbornly high for the bulk of the space age, is beginning to fall as launch systems become more reliable and reusable. Just last week, an American startup company demonstrated an autonomous “first stage” aircraft, which would fly to the upper atmosphere on normal jet engines, from which point a small and relatively cheap rocket booster would suffice to carry a payload into orbit.

Developments like this, combined with ever-cheaper and more efficient batteries, solar panels, communications arrays, and sensors, demonstrate the possibility of building — and crucially, rebuilding — space-based observation, navigation, and communication networks on the fly.

There are many reasons to be optimistic about such a development (though there are some serious unintended consequences as well). But it also changes the incentives to remain bound by the strictures of the existing balance of power in space, and at a time when states with mature space programs are becoming increasingly (though not necessarily realistically) ambitious in their commercial and strategic goals for spaceflight.

A state capable of rebuilding its crucial space-based networks rapidly and cheaply has much less to fear from beginning an escalatory spiral than one whose rare, expensive satellites are held in the balance of terror with a similarly disposed adversary.

Under the current geopolitical circumstances, a wholesale update to or replacement of the Outer Space Treaty is unlikely – and might indeed produce a less optimistic vision of a shared commons above us than the agreement currently in force. Instead, it might be best if we reminded ourselves that even as we get better at exploiting physics that the same forces are immutable and do not care for our geopolitical ambitions, and proceeded with appropriate caution.
Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Germany in Turmoil: Ukrainian Teenage Girl Pushed to Death by Illegal Iraqi Migrant
United Krack down on human rights: Graham Linehan Arrested at Heathrow Over Three X Posts, Hospitalised, Released on Bail with Posting Ban
Asian and Middle Eastern Investors Avoid US Markets
Ray Dalio Warns of US Shift to Autocracy
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.1% in August
Russia and China Sign New Gas Pipeline Deal
China's Robotics Industry Fuels Export Surge
Suntory Chairman Resigns After Police Probe
Gold Price Hits New All-Time Record
Von der Leyen's Plane Hit by Suspected Russian GPS Interference in an Incident Believed to Be Caused by Russia or by Pro-Peace or by Anti-Corruption European Activists
UK Fintechs Explore Buying US Banks
Greece Suspends 5% of Schools as Birth Rate Drops
Apollo to Launch $5 Billion Sports Investment Vehicle
Bolsonaro Trial Nears Close Amid US-Brazil Tension
European Banks Push for Lower Cross-Border Barriers
Poland's Offshore Wind Sector Attracts Investors
Nvidia Reveals: Two Mystery Customers Account for About 40% of Revenue
Woody Allen: "I Would Be Happy to Direct Trump Again in a Film"
Pickles are the latest craze among Generation Z in the United States.
Deadline Day Delivers Record £125m Isak Move and Donnarumma to City
Nestlé Removes CEO Laurent Freixe Following Undisclosed Relationship with Subordinate
Giuliani Seriously Injured in Accident – Trump to Award Him the Presidential Medal of Freedom
EU is getting aggressive: Four AfD Candidates Die Unexpectedly Ahead of North Rhine-Westphalia Local Elections
Lula and Putin Hold Strategic BRICS Discussions Ahead of Trump–Putin Summit
WhatsApp is rolling out a feature that looks a lot like Telegram.
Investigations Reveal Rise in ‘Sex-for-Rent’ Listings Across Canada Exploiting Vulnerable Tenants
Chinese and Indian Leaders Pursue Amity Amid Global Shifts
European Union Plans for Ukraine Deployment
ECB Warns Against Inflation Complacency
Concerns Over North Cyprus Casino Development
Shipping Companies Look Beyond Chinese Finance
Rural Exodus Fueling European Wildfires
China Hosts Major Security Meeting
Chinese Police Successfully Recover Family's Savings from Livestream Purchases
Germany Marks a Decade Since Migrant Wave with Divisions, Success Stories, and Political Shifts
Liverpool Defeat Arsenal 1–0 with Szoboszlai Free-Kick to Stay Top of Premier League
Prince Harry and King Charles to Meet in First Reunion After 20 Months
Chinese Stock Market Rally Fueled by Domestic Investors
Israeli Airstrike in Yemen Kills Houthi Prime Minister
Ukrainian Nationalist Politician Andriy Parubiy Assassinated in Lviv
Corporate America Cuts Middle Management as Bosses Take On Triple the Workload
Parents Sue OpenAI After Teen’s Death, Alleging ChatGPT Encouraged Suicide
Amazon Faces Lawsuit Over 'Buy' Label on Digital Streaming Content
Federal Reserve Independence Questioned Amid Trump’s Push to Reshape Central Bank
British Politics Faces Tumultuous Autumn After Summer of Rebellions and Rising Farage Momentum
US Appeals Court Rules Against Most Trump-Era Tariffs
UK Sought Broad Access to Apple Users’ Data, Court Filing Reveals
UK Bank Shares Dive Over Potential Tax on Sector
Germany’s Auto Industry Sheds 51,500 Jobs in First Half of 2025 Amid Deepening Crisis
Bruce Willis Relocated Due to Advanced Dementia
×