Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Inflation is soaring. Should the Fed unleash 'shock and awe'?

Inflation is soaring. Should the Fed unleash 'shock and awe'?

The Bank of England has already started to raise interest rates to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to follow soon. But how aggressive will America's central bank be?

Investors will be looking for clues when chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Investors are not expecting the Fed to make a move this week. That's more likely to happen in March.

It would be the first time the Fed has changed interest rates since slashing them to near zero at the beginning of the 1Covid1-19 pandemic in March 2020. The central bank hasn't hiked rates since December 2018.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive for most people and companies to borrow money. That, in turn, leads to a slowdown in consumer and business spending, which usually puts a lid on rising prices.

Most on Wall Street think the Fed will want to take a slow and steady approach to combating higher consumer prices. Raising rates too sharply could hurt the economy and lead to further turmoil in a suddenly skittish stock market.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange data shows that the market is pricing in an 88% chance of a quarter-point interest rate increase at the Fed's March 16 meeting.

But a small faction of traders believe the Fed will raise rates more aggressively. Investors are pricing in a 5% probability that the Fed will boost rates by a half-point. (The remaining 7% believe the Fed will sit tight.)

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted earlier this month that a half-point hike by the Fed could help "restore its credibility" as an inflation fighter since it would be a "surprise move to shock and awe the market, which would demonstrate its resolve on inflation."

"The Fed is losing the inflation battle and is behind where it needs to be, with painful economic consequences for the most vulnerable," Ackman added.

Even some bankers are starting to think that the Fed could start with a big rate hike.

Bruce Van Saun, CEO of New England-based regional bank Citizens Financial Group (CFG), told CNN Business that he's hearing more chatter about a half-point hike.

Van Saun noted that even though that's not really priced into the market just yet, the Fed may want to act more quickly to tamp down further inflation pressures.

Still, most market participants think that the Fed can show that it is serious about fighting inflation with smaller rate hikes.

"We think it is unlikely the central bank will open the possibility of a [half-point] hike in March. We would regard more frequent hikes as the most likely risk," said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist with BNP Paribas, in a report.

That's exactly what JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon expects to happen. Dimon told analysts on the bank's earnings conference call earlier this month that there is "a pretty good chance there will be more than four" rate hikes this year — and potentially as many as six or seven.

"This whole notion that somehow it's going to be sweet and gentle and no one is ever going to be surprised ... I think it's a mistake," Dimon said about the current expectations of slow, gradual and telegraphed rate hikes.

Get ready for tech earnings


Stocks have been volatile during the first part of earnings season. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs (GS) and other big banks haven't lived up to the considerable expectations that investors had for their results.

But now it's time for the tech sector, which has been leading the market for the past few years, to take center stage.

Investors will get a read on demand for cloud computing from the likes of IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Chip leader Intel (INTC), which has rallied this year despite lingering concerns about semiconductor supply chain issues, is also on tap to report earnings. So are Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) and the world's most value company, iPhone maker Apple (AAPL).

Expectations are high. Wall Street still adores tech stocks, even though the sector and the overall Nasdaq recently fell into correction mode, down more than 10% from record highs.

According to data from FactSet Research, 62% of the ratings by Wall Street analysts of tech and communications firms in the S&P 500 are buy ratings.

Up next


Monday: Earnings from Philips (PHG), Halliburton (HAL) and IBM

Tuesday: US consumer confidence; Earnings from Ericsson (ERIC), Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), GE (GE), Microsoft, Capital One (COF) and Texas Instruments (TXN)

Wednesday: US new home sales: Fed decision; Earnings from CNN parent company AT&T (T), Anthem (ANTM), Boeing (BA), Intel and Tesla

Thursday: US GDP for Q4; Earnings from Comcast (CMCSA), McDonald's (MCD), Mastercard (MA), Apple, Mondelez (MDLZ) and Visa (V)

Friday: US personal income and spending; Earnings from Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Caterpillar (CAT) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
The Great Western Exit: Why Best Citizens Are Fleeing the Rich World [PODCAST]
The New Robber Barons of Intelligence: Are AI Bosses More Powerful Than Rockefeller?
The End of the Old Order [Podcast]
Britain’s Democracy Is Now a Costume
The AI Gold Rush Is Coming for America’s Last Open Spaces [Podcast]
The Pentagon’s AI Squeeze: Eight Tech Giants Get In, Anthropic Gets Shut Out [Podcast]
The War Map: Professor Jiang’s Dark Theory of Iran, Trump, China, Russia, Israel, and the Coming Global Shock [Podcast]
Labour Is No Longer a National Party [Podcast]
AI Isn’t Stealing Your Job. It’s Dismantling It Piece by Piece.
Lawyers vs Engineers: Why China Builds While America Litigates [Podcast]
Churchill’s Glass: The Drunk, the Doctor, and the Myth Britain Refuses to Sober Up From
Apple issues an unusual warning: this is how your iPhone can be hacked without you doing anything
The Met Gala Meets the Age of Billionaire Backlash
Russian Oligarch’s Superyacht Crosses Hormuz via Iran-Controlled Route
Gunfire Disrupts White House Correspondents’ Dinner as Trump Is Evacuated
A Leak, a King, and a Fracturing Alliance
Inside the Gates Foundation Turmoil: Layoffs, Scrutiny, and the Cost of Reputational Risk
UK Biobank Breach Exposes Health Data of 500,000, Listed for Sale on Chinese Platform
KPMG Cuts Around 10% of US Audit Partners After Failed Exit Push
French Police Probe Suspected Weather-Data Tampering After Unusual Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperatures
News Roundup
Microsoft lost 2.5 millions users (French government) to Linux
Privacy Problems in Microsoft Windows OS
News roundup
Péter András Magyar and the Strategic Reset of Hungary
Hungary After the Landslide — A Strategic Reset in Europe
×