Beautiful Virgin Islands

Monday, Oct 06, 2025

Oil could 'easily' hit $120 if Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, JPMorgan warns

Oil could 'easily' hit $120 if Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, JPMorgan warns

Oil prices could soar to $120 a barrel if Russia's crude exports are derailed by tensions with Ukraine, according to projections from JPMorgan.

The forecast underscores how a potential invasion of Ukraine would cause wide-ranging ripple effects that would be felt by inflation-weary consumers around the world.

"Any disruptions to oil flows from Russia in a context of low spare capacity in other regions could easily send oil prices to $120," Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's head of global commodities strategy, wrote in the report published late Tuesday.

Such a spike from about $91 today would drive up prices at the pump, which hit a fresh seven-year high on Wednesday.

JPMorgan warned that if Russian oil exports are cut in half, Brent oil prices would likely race to $150 a barrel. The all-time high for oil prices was set in July 2008, when Brent spiked to a record at $147.50 a barrel.

How oil supplies could be threatened


Russia-Ukraine tensions have helped inflate oil prices in recent weeks. Brent crude hit a fresh seven-year high of $94 a barrel on Monday, although it has since retreated to around $91.

Russia is the world's No. 2 producer of both oil and natural gas, second only to the United States for each category. The country plays a key role at OPEC+, the producer group that has only gradually added back production that was sidelined during the onset of Covid.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses several risks to the oil market.

First, such a conflict could potentially damage energy infrastructure in the region. Secondly, Western powers could seek to punish Russia by imposing sanctions that cripple the country's energy exports, although US officials have signaled a preference for penalizing other sectors of its economy first.

And then there is the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin retaliates by weaponizing exports of oil and natural gas. Higher natural gas prices in Europe would drive up oil demand as factories and power plants switch to oil instead.

Prices at the pump are at seven-year highs


Oil prices have cooled off a bit in recent days on hopes of easing Russia-Ukraine tensions, as well as signs of progress on reaching a new Iranian nuclear deal.

Gas prices, which move with a lag to oil, are still catching up to the recent oil surge. The national average for gas hit $3.47 a gallon on Wednesday, up seven cents in the past week alone, according to AAA.

Despite the Russia-Ukraine standoff, the Energy Department's forecasting arm is projecting energy prices will cool off later this year as supply finally meets demand.

The US Energy Information Administration projects gasoline prices will average $3.24 a gallon this year. That's below current levels, although it is above the EIA's December forecast for $2.88 a gallon in 2022.

The EIA expects prices at the pump will slide below $3 a gallon in the final quarter of this year and Brent crude to tumble to an average of $68 a barrel for all of 2023.

Russia is also leading producer of natural gas — and its biggest customer is Europe, which is already grappling with very high home heating costs.

"A disruption in exports on any of the major pipelines could place Europe's natural gas balance in a precarious situation, particularly given that 2022 started with record-low European gas inventories," JPMorgan warned.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
France Names New Government Amid Political Crisis
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
Disney Reinstates ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ after Six-Day Suspension over Charlie Kirk Comments
U.S. Prosecutors Move to Break Up Google’s Advertising Monopoly
×