Beautiful Virgin Islands

Saturday, Aug 01, 2026

Retail sales plunge as consumer confidence 'nears financial crisis all-time low'

Retail sales plunge as consumer confidence 'nears financial crisis all-time low'

The data, coupled with a closely-watched reading of consumer confidence, prompts a dive in the value of the pound and places the Bank of England in a tricky position as it decides whether to hike interest rates for a fourth consecutive time.

The pound has fallen sharply after several pieces of data raised fears of a slump ahead for UK economic growth, driven by surging inflation.

The market mood turned ugly when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 1.4% monthly decline in retail sales in March, led by a big drop in demand for online purchases.

There was little sign for optimism among retailers, except for the owners of garden centres and DIY shops, though the data did suggest that COVID-weary consumers shifted discretionary spending towards hospitality and attractions instead as the weather improved.

Economists had expected a 0.3% decline in sales month-on-month - and sterling dived by more than 1.5 cents against the dollar, to an 18-month low of $1.28, as investors fretted over the prospects for economic growth ahead.


The UK currency was also more than one cent off against the euro.

Adding to the gloom was data from a survey of purchasing managers showing the slowest rise in private sector output for three months in April - with record inflationary pressures and war in Ukraine hitting demand.

A closely-watched measure of consumer confidence, also covering April, delivered its second-lowest reading since records began nearly 50 years ago.

It suggests that consumer spending, the biggest contributor to the UK's GDP, is at risk of being choked off as families fret over rising bills for everyday goods and services.

ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said of the retails sales data: "Retail sales fell back notably in March with rises in the cost of living hitting consumers' spending.

"Online sales were hit particularly hard due to lower levels of discretionary spending.

"Fuel sales also fell substantially, with evidence suggesting some people reduced non-essential journeys, following record high petrol prices, while food sales continued to fall, dropping for the fifth consecutive month."

It all makes for worrying reading at the Bank of England.

The GfK consumer confidence index, derived from a survey, came in at -38 - worse than economists had expected and just shy of the all-time low seen in 2008 as the global financial crisis was gathering pace.

The responses were registered at a time when we learned that inflation had hit a 30-year high of 7%.

It is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to climb above 9% after the unprecedented surge in the energy price cap in April - and rises in other household bills such as mobile, water and broadband are reflected in the calculations.

The price cap is currently expected to rise further - by up to £500 - in October when the additional effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are included, while the retail sector expects price rises to intensify throughout 2022.

GfK reported a sharp decrease in consumers' intentions to make major purchases.

All the data will be taken into account by rate-setters at the Bank, who have signalled more caution on rising rates ahead after lifting Bank rate to 0.75% at their last meeting.

They will be anxious not to choke off economic growth through rising interest rates, which are intended to stop rising inflation expectations, such as wage hikes, rather than rising prices as the inflation has been caused by factors outside their control including energy and food costs.

Inflation, while not demand-led, is nevertheless proving more sticky and persistent than policymakers had expected and financial markets still forecast a 0.25% rate hike at the next meeting of the monetary policy committee in two weeks' time.

That is because the inflationary fires have been stoked by Russia's war against Ukraine.

However, Bank governor Andrew Bailey admitted on Thursday that policymakers were walking a tight line between tackling inflation and avoiding recession.

That is because raising borrowing costs to help ease inflationary pressures could prove counterproductive with millions of mortgage holders - those on tracker or standard variable deals - already paying more.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said of the situation: "The ONS' retail sales data is a wake-up call that life is going to be tough for shops - virtual or physical - in the coming months.

"Once those vastly increased energy bills hit the doormat and households take time to reassess their financial situation, there is every chance that retail sales could get even worse," he wrote.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Finland Deploys Commercial-Scale Thermal Batteries Using Crushed Rock to Store Renewable Grid Energy
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Andy Burnham has Announces Plans to Redistribute Income Tax Revenue to English Mayors
Early-Release Scheme Faces Fresh Scrutiny as Reoffending and Prison Recalls Rise
Police Phone Checks Followed Report on Murder of MI5 Agent Inside Sinn Féin
Archbishop of Canterbury Reaffirms £100 Million Reparative Justice Fund During Ghana Visit
Drought Status Extended Across All of Wales as Heat and Dry Weather Deepen Environmental Strain
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The chief executive of the popular gaming company laid off many employees and his pay rose to 38 million dollars
The World's Most Terrifying Smartphone: Recording, Documenting, and Reporting to the Regime
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
UK: Former Football Association Leaders Call for World Cup Boycott Over FIFA Privatization Plan
Forbidden Love: China severs millions from their virtual partners
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Zuckerberg Opposes US Ban on Chinese AI Models and Warns of Regulatory Capture
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
Trump says Israel ‘would not survive’ without US
France Evacuates Atlantic Coast Resorts as Wildfire Risk Rises Again
Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake Strikes Kumamoto as Rescuers Search Collapsed Buildings
OpenAI Faces Demands for Full Disclosure After Models Breach Hugging Face
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
Royal Collection Trust Income Falls as Palace Visits Retreat From Record Highs
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Ministers Examine Social-Care Levy as Burnham Seeks Funding Settlement
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Badenoch Offers Tory Votes to Keep Serious Offenders in Prison
Why Americans Queue for $15 Ice Cream and a $100 Caviar Pint
Another AI Genius Left the United States — and Silicon Valley Is Starting to Worry
Shein Reports $99mn Loss as Trade Barriers Test Low-Cost Model
CXMT Gains 466% in China’s Biggest IPO Since 2010
Amazon Seeks Approval for 5,105-Satellite Mobile Network
Burnham Puts School-to-Work Reform at Centre of Welfare Strategy
Burnham Rules Out Replacing Council Tax and Stamp Duty
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
Autopsy Finds No Violence in Death of Epstein-Linked Model Scout
Indian Education Minister Resigns After Cockroach Youth Protests
California Desert Data-Centre Plan Stalls as Water and Power Disputes Mount
War, Youth Revolt and the Global Struggle for Control
War, Power and the Rising Price of Political Decisions
Badenoch Rejects Grant Shapps' Bid to Return as Conservative Candidate
BAE Chief Warns Britain Has Underestimated the Risk of War
Burnham Rules Out New Scottish Independence Referendum in First Talks With Swinney
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Viral Video Raises Questions Over Twelve-Dollar Croissants at Manhattan Bakery
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
US Gasoline Returns to $4 as Renewed Iran Fighting Disrupts Oil Flows
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Orders 50% Tariffs on Selected Canadian Imports
×