Beautiful Virgin Islands

Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

Ukraine war: Gas costs hit new record and oil soars beyond 2008 high as Russia boycott considered

Ukraine war: Gas costs hit new record and oil soars beyond 2008 high as Russia boycott considered

Market analysts say there is no sign of downwards pressure on prices, with some even saying that the impact of Russian oil and associated products being blocked could tip Brent crude towards an unprecedented $200 a barrel.

The cost of natural gas has smashed past UK records while Brent crude oil has surged to its highest level since 2008 after the US said a boycott of Russian energy imports was being considered, as a further sanction, following President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

The international oil benchmark passed $139 a barrel early on Monday - with its US counterpart also rising sharply - before settling back to around $124 by the evening.

The upward shifts followed comments by US secretary of state Antony Blinken that his country and European allies were discussing a block on oil and associated products, including gas, from Russia - the world's largest producer when combined.

However, prime minister Boris Johnson said that "you can't simply close down the use of oil and gas overnight even from Russia" and Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz said an exemption for energy deliveries from sanctions was of "essential significance" for Europe's day-to-day heating, transport, power supply and industry needs.

The move floated by Mr Blinken would be aimed at disrupting crucial state income - on top of wide-ranging sanctions already announced amid no sign that measures to date have forced Russia to alter course.

It placed further pressure on European natural gas prices when markets opened, with the UK contract for next month delivery rising 66% at one stage to hit a new record shy of 800p per therm before slipping back to 500p.

To put the scale of that price in context, the level for a typical April would be around 40p.

The contract for May delivery spiked by more than 90% to 660p.

The price surge raises the horrifying prospect of average energy bills surging beyond £3,000 annually without government intervention, building on recent warnings to that effect.

Sir Alan Duncan, a former Foreign Office minister, warned in a BBC interview that the ratcheting up of sanctions risked pushing the UK into a "dystopian economic collapse".

Fears of a natural gas squeeze meant that wholesale gas prices were hitting record levels across Europe.

The UK's department for business, energy and industrial strategy tweeted that the country was "in no way dependent on Russian gas supply" in a bid to calm domestic nerves over inflows.

It published data showing that the UK relies on Russia for just over 2% of current needs.


The FTSE 100 added to steep losses of the previous week when share trading began in Europe though gains for miners and oil majors BP and Shell helped temper the sell-off, with the index closing 0.4% lower having been down by more than 2% at one stage.

Germany's DAX was 2% lower, recovering from a 4% plunge initially, while in New York, stock indices also saw sharp falls with the Dow Jones down more than 2%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq about 3% off.

The Nikkei in Japan had ended nearly 3% lower and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong by nearly 4%.

On currency markets, the pound was under further pressure against the US dollar, hitting its lowest level against the greenback since December 2020 at just above $1.31.

The dollar has benefited from a flight to safe-haven assets - a trend which also helped the gold price climb above $2,000 per ounce to hit its highest level since August 2020 on Monday.


No end in sight to rising oil prices


Brent crude has risen by almost 70% over the course of 2022 to date - forcing steep increases in obvious areas such as fuel costs which are hitting record highs daily in the UK and elsewhere - but also in the wider economy as the inflation filters through supply chains.

Prices had already been rising in advance of Russia's actions because of tight supply as economies recover from coronavirus fatigue.

Market experts warned there was only upwards pressure on costs ahead, with Russian oil exports making up 30% of Europe's entire supplies.

When oil's associated products are included, the country is the world's top exporter - accounting for 7% of global supply.

Analysts at CMC Markets told investors: "A boycott would put enormous pressure on oil and gas supply that has already felt the impact of increasing demand.

"Prices are likely to rise in the short term, with a move toward $150 a barrel not out of the question."

"Such a move will put further pressure on global economies, pushing inflation higher, leaving central banks debating how quickly rate hikes should be implemented," they concluded.

Gold, among so-called safe haven assets, has surged in value


Counterparts at Bank of America saw the prospect of $200 a barrel in sight if an oil embargo was imposed.

The record price for Brent - set in July 2008 - is $147.50 a barrel.

The Iran factor supporting prices


Delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets also fuelled fears over tight supplies.

That was because talks to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers were mired by demands from Russia that sanctions it is facing over Ukraine do not disrupt Russia-Iran trade.

Other crucial commodity costs also rose sharply on Monday.

Markets.com noted a 7% rise for wheat and 24% leap in nickel.

Its chief market analyst, Neil Wilson, said of the prospect of an energy boycott: "It was only a matter of time before we got to the point of banning Russian oil and gas because of the escalation in the conflict and targeting of civilians.

"Or at least got to the point of talking about it - which is enough for the front month to rip.

"Moving forward, if there is a ban, how do you turn it back on? That would mean longer-term repercussions and elevated pricing."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Good News: Senate Confirms Kash Patel as FBI Director
Officials from the U.S. and Hungary Engage in Talks on Economic Collaboration and Sanctions Strategy
James Bond Franchise Transitions to Amazon MGM Studios
Technology Giants Ramp Up Lobbying Initiatives Against Strict EU Regulations
Alibaba Exceeds Quarterly Projections Fueled by Growth in Cloud and AI
Tequila Sector Faces Surplus Crisis as Agave Prices Dive Sharply
Residents of Flintshire Mobile Home Park Grapple with Maintenance Issues and Uncertain Future
Ronan Keating Criticizes Irish Justice System Following Fatal Crash Involving His Brother
Gordon Ramsay's Lucky Cat Restaurant Faces Unprecedented Theft
Israeli Family Mourns Loss of Peace Advocate Oded Lifschitz as Body Returned from Gaza
Former UK Defense Chief Calls for Enhanced European Support for Ukraine
Pope Francis Admitted to Hospital in Rome Amid Rising Succession Speculation
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, at the age of 83, Declares His Retirement.
Whistleblower Reveals Whitehall’s Focus on Kabul Animal Airlift Amid Crisis
Politicians Who Deliberately Lie Could Face Removal from Office in Wales
Scottish Labour Faces Challenges Ahead of 2026 Holyrood Elections
Leftwing Activists Less Likely to Work with Political Rivals, Study Finds
Boris Johnson to Host 'An Evening with Boris Johnson' at Edinburgh's Usher Hall
Planned Change in British Citizenship Rules Faces First Legal Challenge
Northumberland Postal Worker Sentenced for Sexual Assaults During Deliveries
British Journalist Missing in Brazil for 11 Days
Tesco Fixes Website Glitch That Disrupted Online Grocery Orders
Amnesty International Critiques UK's Predictive Policing Practices
Burglar Jailed After Falling into Home-Made Trap in Blyth
Sellafield Nuclear Site Exits Special Measures for Physical Security Amid Ongoing Cybersecurity Concerns
Avian Influenza Impact on Seals in Norfolk: Four Deaths Confirmed
First Arrest Under Scotland's Abortion Clinic Buffer Zone Law Amidst International Controversy
Meghan Markle Rebrands Lifestyle Venture as 'As Ever' Ahead of Netflix Series Launch
Inter-Island Ferry Services Between Guernsey and Jersey Set to Expand
Significant Proportion of Cancer Patients in England and Wales Not Receiving Recommended Treatments
Final Consultation Launched for Vyrnwy Frankton Power Line Project
Drug Misuse Deaths in Scotland Rise by 12% in 2023
Failed £100 Million Cocaine Smuggling Operation in the Scottish Highlands
Central Cee Equals MOBO Awards Record; Bashy and Ayra Starr Among Top Honorees
EastEnders: Four Decades of Challenging Social Norms
Jonathan Bailey Channels 'Succession' in Bold Richard II Performance
Northern Ireland's First Astronaut Engages in Rigorous Spacewalk Training
Former Postman Sentenced for Series of Sexual Offences in Northumberland
Record Surge in Anti-Muslim Hate Crimes Across the UK in 2024
Omagh Bombing Inquiry Concludes Commemorative Hearings with Survivor Testimonies
UK Government Introduces 'Ronan's Law' to Combat Online Knife Sales to Minors
Metal Detectorists Unearth 15th-Century Coin Hoard in Scottish Borders
Woman Charged in 1978 Death of Five-Year-Old Girl in South London
Expanding Sinkhole in Godstone, Surrey, Forces Evacuations and Road Closures
Bangor University Announces Plans to Cut 200 Jobs Amid £15 Million Savings Target
British Journalist Charlotte Peet Reported Missing in Brazil
UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Higher Food Prices and School Fees
Starmer Defends Zelensky Amidst Trump's 'Dictator' Allegation
Zelensky Calls on World Leaders to Back Peace Efforts in Light of Strains with Trump
UK Prime minister, Mr. Keir Starmer, has stated that any peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine "MUST" include a US security guarantee to deter Russian aggression
×