Beautiful Virgin Islands

Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

US economy could be headed toward recession, economist warns: '100% odds' of global slowdown

US economy could be headed toward recession, economist warns: '100% odds' of global slowdown

Rising interest rates and soaring inflation could dampen consumer spending

The U.S. economy could be barreling toward a recession in the next year, as persistently high inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve weighs on growth.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, warned in a new analyst note that the odds of an economic downturn in the U.S. over the course of the next year are somewhere between 35% and 40%.

There's an even greater risk of a global downturn.

"A U.S. recession is unlikely in the very near term, but there are several uncertainties on the horizon," Daco wrote. "While I put the odds of a U.S. recession somewhere around 35-40% in the next 12 months, the odds of a material global growth slowdown are close to 100% in the next six months."

While the U.S. economy remains strong in the interim, "cracks are starting to appear in the foundation," he wrote. Sky-high inflation, rising interest rates and depressed financial markets are likely to weigh on consumer spending in coming months. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the nation.

A man shops at a Safeway grocery store in Annapolis, Md., May 16, 2022.


"With the Fed tightening the monetary policy spigot with increased determination and the global economic outlook turning bleaker, the U.S. economy will grow more susceptible to a downturn in the coming months," Daco wrote.

Economic growth in the U.S. is already slowing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter of the year, marking the worst performance since the spring of 2020, when the economy was still deep in the throes of the COVID-induced recession.

The analysis comes amid growing fears on Wall Street that the Fed may drag the economy into a recession as it seeks to tame inflation, which climbed by 8.3% in April, near a 40-year high. Bank of America, as well as Fannie Mae and Deutsche Bank, are among the Wall Street firms forecasting a downturn in the next two years, along with former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

"The Fed is attempting to thread the needle while wearing boxing gloves and a mouth guard, which reduces its degrees of freedom to act without causing damage to the real economy," said RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, who has questioned whether the central bank will be able to achieve a soft landing.

Policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points earlier this month for the first time in two decades and have signaled that more, similarly-sized rate hikes are on the table at coming meetings as they rush to catch up with inflation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, right, testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on Capitol Hill. 


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged there could be some "pain associated" with reducing inflation and curbing demand but has pushed back against the notion of an impending recession, identifying the labor market and strong consumer spending as bright spots in the economy. Still, he has warned that a soft landing is not assured.

"It's going to be a challenging task, and it's been made more challenging in the last couple of months because of global events," Powell said Wednesday during a Wall Street Journal live event, referring to the Ukraine war and COVID lockdowns in China.

But he added that "there are a number of plausible paths to having a soft or softish landing. Our job isn't to handicap the odds, it's to try to achieve that."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
Poland Implements Border Checks Amid Growing Migration Tensions
Political Dispute Escalates Between Trump and Musk
Emirates Airline Expands Market Share with New $20 Million Campaign
Amazon Reaches Milestone with Deployment of One Millionth Robot
US Senate Votes to Remove AI Regulation Moratorium from Domestic Policy Bill
Yulia Putintseva Calls for Spectator Ejection at Wimbledon Over Safety Concerns
×