Beautiful Virgin Islands

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

US recession fears grow as economy slows sharply in first quarter

US recession fears grow as economy slows sharply in first quarter

Growth eases by far more than expected between January and March to the extent financial markets and many economists now believe recession is inevitable.

The world's largest economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, according to the first official estimate which has raised fears of recession ahead.

Growth was measured at an annualised rate of 1.1% between January and March, the Commerce Department said.

Economists had been expecting a figure of 2%.

The slump followed growth of 2.6%, by the same measure, during the final three months of 2023.

The growth was mainly explained by consumer spending holding up, probably due to a low unemployment rate, as the aggressive pace of interest rate rises to tame inflation hit other areas, such as the housing market, harder.

The data also pointed to a big reduction in business inventories - behaviour that is typically seen in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Economists are split on the prospect of recession being declared.

The definition of a technical recession across most of the world is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5% and is expected to hike again next month


By that measure, the US economy would have been in recession during the first half of last year.

But the country defines such a contraction differently. It is determined by a committee of experts.

The US economy's low jobless rate largely prevented a recession being declared last year but conditions are darkening for 2023.

Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Fed Reserve's rate hikes has yet to be fully felt while the pace of hiring is slowing.

Many banks, which are charging higher interest rates as a result, have also muddied the waters due to a tightening of lending standards since the failure last month of two major banks - Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

There are signs the crisis of confidence is not over yet as First Republic, a major regional lender, has seen a fresh run on its share price this week taking it to fresh lows.

It was effectively rescued last month by a $30bn cash injection from 11 major peers and revealed on Tuesday that $100bn had been withdrawn by depositors during the frenzy to grip the sector.

It has been reported that the federal government is unwilling to engineer a rescue.

Another political challenge is also gaining traction.

The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has moved to pressure President Biden over a looming debt ceiling deadline by voting to raise the limit only in exchange for big spending cuts.

A default would plunge the US economy into chaos so it forces Mr Biden to negotiate with his political opponents.

Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said of the economic growth figures: "January was really the standout month and since then we've seen weakness in February and March, which has really been slowly dragging down the economy.

"If we're looking to the future, data does seem to be continuing to weaken.

"The good news is we do think a recession could be mild."

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Apple Launches AI Features on Select iPhones
JP Morgan Sued Customers Over Viral Cheque Fraud Scheme
King Charles to Continue Global Tours Despite Cancer Diagnosis
Venice Extends Tourist Entry Fee Program to 2025
Tommy Robinson Charged Under Terrorism Act for Phone Offence
Plans to Increase Employers' National Insurance Announced
Washington Post Editor-at-Large Robert Kagan has RESIGNED after owner Jeff Bezos BARRED the endorsement of Kamala Harris.
Massive Theft of Artisan Cheddar from Neal’s Yard Dairy
US Man Charged with Murder of Co-Worker over Breaks
Carbon Monoxide Incident Claims Lives at UK Care Home
Birmingham Airport Evacuated Due to Suspicious Vehicle
Former US President Barack Obama raps the lyrics to Eminem's ‘Lose Yourself’ after the rapper introduces him at a Kamala Harris rally in Detroit
KYIV URGES NORTH KOREAN TROOPS IN UKRAINE TO SURRENDER
Ofcom Identifies Link Between Social Media Posts and UK Unrest
Russian Boxer Receives Lifetime Ban for Illegal Move in Boxing Debut
Biden Labels Trump a Threat to Democracy
McDonald's Linked to E. coli Outbreak Leading to One Death
Teacher Enoch Burke arrested at Wilson’s Hospital School in Ireland after refusing to endorse and affirm transgender ideology.
FBI Investigates Leak of US Intelligence on Israeli Strike Plans
Israeli Airstrike Targets Hezbollah's Financial Resources
China’s Baidu is revolutionizing transportation with its robotaxi service
Angela Rayner Secures Permanent Seat on UK National Security Council
Russian Ambassador Claims UK's Proxy War in Ukraine
Doctor Advocates for Assisted Dying Law Reform
Ruth Davis Appointed as UK’s First Nature Envoy
Pressure Mounts on Starmer to Discuss Reparations at Commonwealth Summit
James Cleverly’s Costly In-Flight Catering for Government Trips
AI Regulation Takes Center Stage in 2024 US Presidential Campaign
NASA Study Explores Potential Microbial Life Beneath Mars' Ice
Cats: The Liquid-Like Pets
Netanyahu Condemns Alleged Hezbollah Assassination Attempt
Liam Payne's Tragic Death: Tributes Pour In
Cuba's Power Struggles: Nationwide Blackout Strikes Again
Xi Jinping Urges Troops to Prepare for Conflict Amid Taiwan Drills
Farage Supported by US PR Team Linked to Steve Bannon
Controversy Over MP's Comments on Female Candidate's Family Responsibilities
Highlights from the Conservative Leadership Contest TV Debate
Childminder Jailed for Inciting Racial Hatred After Southport Attack
NHS England's Repair Bill Soars to Almost £14 Billion
Russia Accused of Using Incendiary Devices to Disrupt Western Confidence
Culture Wars: 'A Dog Whistle to Attack the Right', Says Badenoch
Virtual Reality and Advanced Technologies in Combating Cocaine Addiction
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Assembles Taskforce to Safeguard Financial Stability Amid Increased Borrowing Plans
RAF Typhoon Intercepts Air India Flight After Bomb Threat
Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar Killed in Israeli Operation
Fruit Fly Gut Hormone Study Sheds Light on Human Longevity
Tragic Loss: Liam Payne's Passing in Buenos Aires
Liam Payne's Tragic Death in Buenos Aires
Trump Criticizes Zelensky for Role in Ukraine-Russia War
Yahya Sinwar’s Death Marks Pivotal Moment in Gaza War
×