Beautiful Virgin Islands

Saturday, Mar 14, 2026

UK economy 'running on empty' as recession signals mount - PMI

UK economy 'running on empty' as recession signals mount - PMI

Britain's economy is showing signs of stalling as high inflation hits new orders and businesses report levels of concern that normally herald a recession, a closely watched industry survey showed on Thursday.

S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), covering services and manufacturing firms, also showed companies raising pay and passing higher costs on to clients, a worry for the Bank of England.

The PMI's preliminary composite index held at 53.1 in June, above the median forecast of 52.6 in a Reuters poll of economists and unchanged from May.

But its measure of new orders fell to 50.8, the lowest in over a year. Factory orders dipped below the 50.0 growth threshold to 49.6.

"The economy is starting to look like it is running on empty," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.

"Business confidence has now slumped to a level which has in the past typically signalled an imminent recession," he said, adding that the economy was likely to show a fall in output in the second quarter that could deepen in the third quarter.

Economies around the world are struggling with similar problems and sterling rose against the euro after a similar survey showed a sharp slowdown in business growth in the single currency area, and the pound recovered some of its earlier losses against the U.S. dollar.

Some analysts said the report, while not yet reflecting the full impact of the cost-of-living crisis, provided a bit of hope that a recession might be avoided.

"For now, the survey offers some reason to think the economy could be a little more resilient than we thought," Nicholas Farr, an economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said.

But others worried about the signs of demand growth petering out and the still high inflation pressures.

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said he continued to expect Britain's economy would shrink in the April-June period, albeit partly due to an additional public holiday.

"We still are content with our forecast for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q2 and only a partial recovery in Q3," he wrote in a note to clients.

The PMI's business expectations index fell by 4.6 points in June, the largest monthly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with manufacturers and service providers both reporting their lowest business optimism levels since May 2020.

Separate data showed the limits on finance minister Rishi Sunak for spending more money or cutting taxes to stimulate the economy, as rising inflation-linked debt interest costs pushed the public finances deeper into the red than expected in May.

Inflation is also hitting spending by consumers and figures from the Confederation of British Industry showed retailers - who are not included in the PMI surveys - were feeling the hit this month.

The PMI's measure of job creation was the strongest in three months, in the latest sign of the strength in the labour market.

But employers reported difficulty finding staff and pay levels rose. That helped keep increases in prices charged by firms near two-decade highs.

Companies across the board felt the need to pass on higher energy, fuel and wage costs to customers, S&P Global said.

The BoE is worried that the recent jump in inflation to a 40-year high of 9.1% in May might turn into a permanent problem for the British economy. It said last week it was ready to act "forcefully" if it saw signs of persistent inflation pressures.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
British Airways Suspends UK Repatriation Flights as Middle East Travel Disruption Deepens
US Forces Prepare Ordnance at RAF Fairford as Strategic Bombers Deploy for Middle East Operations
Nigel Farage Faces Criticism After Saying Britain Should Stay Out of Iran War
Landmark UK Trial Begins Over Sony’s PlayStation Store Pricing
UK High Court Rejects Bid to Challenge Britain’s Chagos Islands Agreement With Mauritius
Finnish Duo Triumphs in England’s Annual Wife-Carrying Race, Winning a Barrel of Ale
How U.S. and UK National Security Strategies Are Reshaping the Global Business Landscape
Green Party Gains Momentum as Labour Shifts Toward the Political Centre
Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon Sets Sail for Eastern Mediterranean as Regional Tensions Rise
UK Homebuilder Persimmon Warns Iran Conflict Could Dent Property Buyer Confidence
Roman Abramovich Signals Legal Fight if UK Seeks to Seize Chelsea Sale Funds
UK Ready to Back Emergency Oil Reserve Release as Middle East Conflict Pushes Prices Higher
Study of 40,000 Articles Sparks Debate Over Alleged Anti-Muslim Bias in UK Media
×