Beautiful Virgin Islands

Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025

Brazil, India and South Africa face toughest recovery among G-20 nations, study finds

Brazil, India and South Africa, which cumulatively represent more than 10% of global GDP (gross domestic product) and 20% of the world’s population, are expected to see GDP contractions of 7% on average in 2020.

Affluent G-20 countries have been able to implement strict lockdown measures and effective testing and tracing regimes, combined with higher levels of fiscal flexibility to support citizens as economies fell stagnant. The three countries were identified as being at higher risk of corruption and potential civil unrest than many of their G-20 counterparts.

Brazil, India and South Africa face the harshest road to recovery of all the G-20 (Group of 20) major economies, according to a new study.

The three nations have the second, third and fifth largest Covid-19 caseloads in the world respectively, but Verisk Maplecroft’s Recovery Capacity Index also identified underlying governance issues and weaker institutions as impediments to long-term emergence from the crisis.

The index measures more than a dozen factors which either underpin or undermine a recovery from a crisis. The Western European and East Asian G-20 nations, which suffered the worst initial hit from the pandemic now have the foundations in place to recover and scored on average 40% higher across the index than their emerging market counterparts.

Brazil, India and South Africa, which cumulatively represent more than 10% of global GDP (gross domestic product) and 20% of the world’s population, are projected to see their economies contract by an average of 7% in 2020, according to the IMF.


Key differentiators

Institutional weaknesses, notably higher levels of corruption, were identified as the key factors separating poorer G-20 members from their more affluent counterparts.

“South Africa, India and Brazil each score as ‘high’ risk for corruption in our dataset, with Russia, Mexico and Indonesia falling into or near the ‘extreme’ risk category,” Verisk Maplecroft Principal Financial Sector Risk Analyst David Wille said in the report.

“Corrupt, ineffective and unstable governments will be limited in their ability to direct funding to where it is most needed, failing to revive the economy even after the immediate crisis is dealt with.”

Population sensitivity also reduces a country’s ability to handle shocks, and Brazil, India and South Africa were among the bottom performers, combining higher levels of poverty with lower “human capital.”

Connectivity was highlighted as an important pillar for recovery, with India scoring as “high” risk. The measure tracks physical distance between populations and the digital infrastructure which drives a resumption of commercial activity. South Africa, China, Mexico and Brazil all scored as “medium” risk on this criterion.

Other man-made or natural challenges faced by particular nations alongside the pandemic and economic considerations were also accounted for. In the case of Brazil, India and South Africa, Verisk analysts said disruption from civil unrest represents the largest compounding risk factor.


U.S. a ‘clear outlier’

In general, more affluent members of the G-20 bloc have been able to implement strict lockdown measures and effective testing and tracing regimes, combined with higher levels of fiscal flexibility to support citizens as economies fell stagnant.

“The clear outlier is the United States, which has had the least effective pandemic response of any developed market due to its inconsistent and politicized state-level reopening,” Wille said in the report.

“An elevated coronavirus caseload will prolong the U.S. economic downturn, but its high fiscal firepower and underlying resilience will enable the economy to bounce back once outbreaks subside or a vaccine becomes widely available.”

By contrast, both India and South Africa implemented strict lockdowns early, but lacked the fiscal and budgetary capacity to support their populations through prolonged periods of inactivity.

Brazil resisted enacting social-distancing measures while President Jair Bolsonaro dismissed the severity of the virus and promoted unfounded cures, only to end up contracting it himself as the country experienced the second-largest outbreak in the world, surpassing 3.4 million cases.

Unsuccessful state level lockdowns in Brazil and the ensuing backlash mean Verisk analysts expect governors to keep their economies open through the brunt of the crisis, exacerbating the human and economic tolls in the long run.

These factors also contribute to Brazil receiving the highest risk rating of the three countries for civil unrest over the next six months in Verisk’s datasets, combined with popular outrage over government corruption allegations. South Africa and India also score around the “extreme” risk rating for civil unrest potential.

“These compounding factors will exacerbate pre-existing socioeconomic issues, rising unemployment and unsatisfactory government responses to the pandemic,” said Wille.

“This creates higher levels of uncertainty for investors, and large-scale civil unrest has the potential to derail even the strongest of economic recoveries.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
“You Have 12 Hours to Flee”: Israeli Threat Campaign Targets Surviving Iranian Officials
Macron and Merz: Europe must arm itself in an unstable world
Germany and Italy Under Pressure to Repatriate $245bn of Gold from US Vaults
Airlines Evaluate Flight Cancellations Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
Starmer Invites Innovators to Join Government Talent Scheme
UK Economy’s Strong Opening Quarter Shows Signs of Cooling
Harrods Seeks Court Order to Secure Al Fayed Estate for Victims
BA and Singapore Airlines Cancel Dubai Flights Amid Middle East Tensions
Trump Faces Backlash from MAGA Base Over Iran Strikes
Meta Bets $14 B on Alexandr Wang to Drive AI Ambitions
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
FedEx Founder Fred Smith, ‘Heart and Soul’ of the Company, Dies at 80
Chinese Factories Shift Away from U.S. Amid Trump‑Era Tariffs
Pimco Seizes Opportunity in Japan’s Dislocated Bond Market
Labubu Doll Drives Pop Mart to Status as China’s Most Valuable Toy Maker
Global Coal Demand Defies Paris Accord Goals
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
BBC Demands Perplexity AI Immediately Stop Using Its Content
Telegram Founder: I Will Leave My Fortune to Over 100 of My Children
Political Turmoil Resurfaces in Belgium Amid Economic Concerns
Fed policymakers divided on timing of interest rate cuts
Trump signals imminent agreement with Harvard University
Inheritance tax referendum alarms Swiss billionaire community
Japan cancels bilateral security meeting amid US defence demands
AI skeptic Emily Bender warns that ‘the emperor has no clothes’
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
×