Beautiful Virgin Islands

Friday, Oct 31, 2025

What a Biden victory could mean for energy, health care and tech stocks

What a Biden victory could mean for energy, health care and tech stocks

Heading into Election Day, former Vice President Joe Biden is the clear frontrunner in the race for the White House. If he wins, and Democrats retake control of the Senate, a growing chorus of Wall Street analysts think markets could benefit.

"If there is Blue Wave, that might initially lead to some weakness, as investors would worry about the swing to market-unfriendly policies," Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan, told clients Monday. "But we believe that this too will be an opportunity to [buy stocks], as the fiscal support will likely be ramped up significantly."

Despite expectations for fresh stimulus, some sectors could be more sensitive to a Biden win. Among Biden's campaign promises are pledges to build a greener economy, expand government-backed health care and raise taxes on corporations. Should he follow through, energy, health care and tech companies could face greater pressure.

Here's what Raymond James policy analyst Ed Mills told me:

* Oil companies have had a cheerleader in the White House for the past four years. That would change under Biden. "A Biden victory would continue a significant sentiment shift away from energy investments," Mills said. But he expects any attempts to move energy production and consumption away from fossil fuels would likely involve more carrots than sticks, limiting policy-related damage to stocks.

* Hospitals could take a hit if Biden is successful in expanding the number of people on government health care, since reimbursements for procedures tend to be higher for people with private insurance.

* Big tech companies have been a bogeyman for both Democrats and Republicans in recent years. But under Biden, tax policy could pose a real threat to earnings, given his plan to ensure no large company gets away without paying taxes of at least 15%. Biden may also not be as strongly opposed to new digital services taxes on firms like Google and Amazon.

Much could depend on who Biden picks to fill key positions in his administration.

"Overall, personnel is policy," Mills said. Installing a tougher head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, for example, could lead to greater penalties for misbehaving banks.

Remember: Broadly speaking, long-term stock performance is more closely tied to the ups and downs of the business cycle than any election.

"What is known today is we are on the cusp of a new business cycle. Corporate revenue is improving and [interest rates] are going to stay low for a long time," Deepak Puri, Americas chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, told me.

While the trajectory of Covid-19 remains a huge risk, those conditions will likely remain the driving force for financial assets — not who wins the presidency, Puri said.

After all, energy stocks have crashed since Trump took over, as investor interest in oil and gas companies waned and the pandemic destroyed demand. The iShares US Energy ETF has plunged nearly 60% since the 2016 election.

"The energy conversation is really more about the strength of the economy," Mills said.

Stocks are jumping, but watch oil


Stocks are gaining Monday after wrapping up their worst week since March. But in the coming days, don't expect markets to move in one direction.

Catch up: Election jitters and new lockdown measures announced in France and Germany sent stocks down sharply last week. The Dow fell 6.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 5.6%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 5.5%.

Investors are starting off the week on a more positive note. European stocks and US futures are higher, even though a new stay-at-home order was announced in England over the weekend.

Oil prices tell a different story, however. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, dipped another 2.3% Monday to roughly $37 per barrel.

Prices haven't been so low since May, when strict quarantines were still in force in many top economies, causing thirst for oil to dry up.

"With coronavirus cases rising and renewed lockdown measures coming in, driving statistics have started to decline again and commercial aviation does not seem to be improving anymore," Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said in a recent note to clients.

Inventories of crude remain "stubbornly high," they added. That leaves little room to deal with another plunge in demand.

What it means: Even if stocks are resilient, oil prices indicate that concerns about the fate of the economic recovery could dog markets in the coming weeks.

After all, reduced mobility isn't just bad news for oil producers.

Economists fear that Europe's economy could contract in the fourth quarter. Despite record GDP growth in the third quarter, the EU economy remains about 4% smaller than it was at the end of September last year.

Can the stock market predict election results?


With the US presidential election just one day away, the stock market has locked in its prediction about the victor — at least according to one indicator, my CNN Business colleague David Goldman reports.

The S&P 500 fell 0.04% between July 31 and Oct. 31. That means the market forecasts by a hair that Biden will win, according to CFRA Research's Presidential Predictor.

The stock market has a fairly reliable track record: Since World War II, when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88% of the time.

When the S&P 500 rises during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82% of the time.

The stock market had been predicting a Trump victory until Friday, when the S&P 500 tumbled 1.2%. That was just enough to send stocks into the red over the past three months, giving the razor-thin edge to Biden.

"This year, the Predictor closed ever so slightly in the red during this three-month period, implying, but not guaranteeing, that Biden will emerge victorious," said Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist.

Up next


Clorox (CLX), Estee Lauder (EL) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) report results before US markets open. Mondelez and PayPal follow after the close.

Also today: The ISM Manufacturing Index for October posts at 10 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: Check your inbox for another special edition of Before the Bell, just in time for Election Day in America.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Beautiful Virgin Islands
0:00
0:00
Close
UK and Vietnam Sign Landmark Migration Deal to Fast-Track Returns of Irregular Arrivals
UK Drug-Pricing Overhaul Essential for Life-Sciences Ambition, Says GSK Chief
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Temporarily Leave the UK Amid Their Parents’ Royal Fallout
UK Weighs Early End to Oil and Gas Windfall Tax as Reeves Seeks Investment Commitments
UK Retail Inflation Slows as Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since Spring
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance After Strong Third-Quarter Performance
Reform UK’s Lee Anderson Admits to 'Gaming' Benefits System While Advocating Crackdown
United States and South Korea Conclude Major Trade Accord Worth $350 Billion
Hurricane Melissa Strikes Cuba After Devastating Jamaica With Record Winds
Vice President Vance to Headline Turning Point USA Campus Event at Ole Miss
U.S. Targets Maritime Narco-Routes While Border Pressure to Mexico Remains Limited
Bill Gates at 70: “I Have a Real Fear of Artificial Intelligence – and Also Regret”
Elon Musk Unveils Grokipedia: An AI-Driven Alternative to Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia Unveils Vision for First-Ever "Sky Stadium" Suspended Over Desert Floor
Amazon Announces 14 000 Corporate Job Cuts as AI Investment Accelerates
UK Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since March, Food Leads the Decline
London Stock Exchange Group ADR (LNSTY) Earns Zacks Rank #1 Upgrade on Rising Earnings Outlook
Soap legend Tony Adams, long-time star of Crossroads, dies at 84
Rachel Reeves Signals Tax Increases Ahead of November Budget Amid £20-50 Billion Fiscal Gap
NatWest Past Gains of 314% Spotlight Opportunity — But Some Key Risks Remain
UK Launches ‘Golden Age’ of Nuclear with £38 Billion Sizewell C Approval
UK Announces £1.08 Billion Budget for Offshore Wind Auction to Boost 2030 Capacity
UK Seeks Steel Alliance with EU and US to Counter China’s Over-Capacity
UK Struggles to Balance China as Both Strategic Threat and Valued Trading Partner
Argentina’s Markets Surge as Milei’s Party Secures Major Win
British Journalist Sami Hamdi Detained by U.S. Authorities After Visa Revocation Amid Israel-Gaza Commentary
King Charles Unveils UK’s First LGBT+ Armed Forces Memorial at National Memorial Arboretum
At ninety-two and re-elected: Paul Biya secures eighth term in Cameroon amid unrest
Racist Incidents Against UK Nurses Surge by 55%
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Cites Shared Concerns With Trump Administration as Foundation for Early US-UK Trade Deal
Essentra plc: A Closer Look at a UK ‘Penny Stock’ Opportunity Amid Market Weakness
U.S. and China Near Deal to Avert Rare-Earth Export Controls Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
Justin time: Justin Herbert Shields Madison Beer with Impressive Reflex at Lakers Game
Russia’s President Putin Declares Burevestnik Nuclear Cruise Missile Ready for Deployment
Giuffre’s Memoir Alleges Maxwell Claimed Sexual Act with Clooney
House Republicans Move to Strip NYC Mayoral Front-Runner Zohran Mamdani of U.S. Citizenship
Record-High Spoiled Ballots Signal Voter Discontent in Ireland’s 2025 Presidential Election
Philippines’ Taal Volcano Erupts Overnight with 2.4 km Ash Plume
Albania’s Virtual AI 'Minister' Diella Set to 'Birth' Eighty-Three Digital Assistants for MPs
Tesla Unveils Vision for Optimus V3 as ‘Biggest Product of All Time’, Including Surgical Capabilities
Francis Ford Coppola Auctions Luxury Watches After Self-Financed Film Flop
Convicted Sex Offender Mistakenly Freed by UK Prison Service Arrested in London
United States and China Begin Constructive Trade Negotiations Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro over Drug-Trafficking Allegations
Miss USA Crowns Nebraska’s Audrey Eckert Amid Leadership Overhaul
‘I Am Not Done’: Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 White House Run
NBA Faces Integrity Crisis After Mass Arrests in Gambling Scandal
Swift Heist at the Louvre Sees Eight French Crown Jewels Stolen in Under Seven Minutes
U.S. Halts Trade Talks with Canada After Ontario Ad Using Reagan Voice Triggers Diplomatic Fallout
Microsoft AI CEO: ‘We’re making an AI that you can trust your kids to use’ — but can Microsoft rebuild its own trust before fixing the industry’s?
×